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OFRM

Once Upon A Farm Pbc

NYSE · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · US

$17.46
−0.23%
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Latest reported

Last report date
Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
-$0.12
EPS estimate
-$0.19
Revenue actual
$85.4M
Revenue estimate
$77.4M

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
2
EPS misses (12Q)
1
EPS in line (12Q)
0
Avg surprise (4Q)
+11.4%
Revenue beats (12Q)
3

Analyst ratings

Sell-side consensus

Consensus
Buy
Price target
$23
PT range
$19 – $26
Analysts
2
1 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q2 FY2026 · Aug 6, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

  • Overall Business Performance • Delivered high-quality, volume-led 42.3% YoY net sales growth, with underlying consumption growing in the low to mid 30% range; the gap between net sales and consumption growth reflects favorable cooler slotting and significant distribution gains, including initial shipments of new protein innovation. • Remains the fastest growing brand in baby and toddler snacks by dollar share, and continues to gain share in baby and toddler pouches, taking share from larger conventional competitors and bringing new incremental consumers to the category. • Household penetration grew to 6.2% as of the end of Q2, up from 5% YoY; repeat rate among households with kids increased 351 bps YoY to 52.1%, with new households showing even higher repeat rates, confirming the success of the brand strategy from baby through kid categories. • A targeted low single-digit price increase on selected items, effective late September, was broadly accepted by retailers to offset specific inflationary pressures; limited unit volume impact is expected based on historical elasticity and current demand trends.

  • Innovation and Distribution • Newly launched meat and legume protein baby pouches are 61% incremental to Once Upon a Farm and 63% incremental to the total baby category at select retailers, with distribution expansion still in early stages. • A successful Q2 national club program exposed the brand to millions of new households, increasing household penetration for the immunity blend portfolio by over 20% versus April; a smaller national program focused on best-selling toddler tractor wheel snacks will launch at the same customer in Q3. • A new subline of functional kid pouches will launch with several key customers in the coming weeks; packaging updates will roll out across the entire kid pouch portfolio through the end of 2026 to boost on-shelf impact and consumer value.

  • Cooler Strategy • Cooler productivity continues to increase, with one large customer seeing over 30% QoQ velocity growth driven by new product additions (meat/legume protein pouches, oat bar minis); most of this growth is incremental to the company and the overall category. • The company remains on track to reach ~5,000 total coolers in 2026, 8,000 in 2027, and at least 15,000 long-term; proof of concept has driven deeper engagement with additional major retailers, and second/bigger coolers are already being added at long-standing retailer partners.

  • Supply Chain • The company is advancing targeted automation and productivity initiatives with co-manufacturing partners across highest volume platforms to increase capacity, improve service, and reduce costs, especially labor-related costs. • Initial benefits are expected in 2027, with larger incremental contributions coming in 2028 as projects reach full utilization; meaningful 2027 profitability expansion does not depend on full benefits from these initiatives, which will only strengthen long-term profit outlook. • Total planned capital investment for these initiatives is $25-$35 million over the next several years, with co-manufacturing partners also contributing investment to gain capacity and throughput benefits.

Guidance

• Full-year 2026 net sales guidance is raised to $327 million to $335 million, representing 36% to 39% YoY growth, up from prior guidance, reflecting strong Q2 performance, continued underlying consumption growth, incremental new distribution, and the planned Q3 national club program; net sales growth is expected to be balanced across Q3 and Q4. • Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is raised to $3 million to $4.5 million, up from the prior range of $2 million to $4 million, reflecting stronger net sales expectations while maintaining flexibility for selective reinvestment through the end of the year. • Full-year 2026 gross margin guidance is revised to ~40%, ~100 basis points lower than prior outlook, due to faster than expected growth in lower-margin baby snacks and incremental trade investment for the Q3 national club program; this assumes fuel costs and current tariff rates remain stable. • Q3 2026 gross margin is expected to be similar to Q2's 35.9%, with gross margin improving in Q4 after the club program concludes and the September price increase takes effect. • Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA is expected to show a slightly smaller loss than Q2's $1.7 million adjusted EBITDA loss; full-year profitability is heavily weighted to Q4 consistent with normal seasonality, which will bring full-year adjusted EBITDA into the guided range. • Long-term profitability and margin expansion is expected to be supported by scale benefits, price realization, supply chain productivity, and logistics efficiencies, regardless of the full timing of automation initiative benefits.

Segment performance

Total company net sales for Q2 fiscal 2026 increased 42.3% year-over-year to $85.4 million. The Baby segment led growth, with net sales increasing 73% YoY to $41.5 million, accounting for 48.6% of total Q2 net sales. Baby segment growth was driven by 85,000+ new distribution points and strong performance from newly launched meat and legume protein pouches, with pouches and snacks growing at similar rates. The Kid segment saw net sales growth re-accelerate to 22% YoY to $43.9 million, accounting for 51.4% of total Q2 net sales. Kid snacks grew slightly faster than kid pouches, supported by new innovation (Power Wheels protein kid bars, protein and probiotic kid pouches) that added 15,000+ new distribution points. Kid pouch growth was driven by a successful national club program and packaging refreshes that delivered 10-15% average velocity increases on existing distribution.

Risks & headwinds

• Inflationary pressures for input costs, fuel, and tariffs require offsetting actions including targeted price increases; unanticipated spikes in fuel or tariff costs could further pressure gross margin. • Baby snacks currently carry a lower margin profile than pouches, and faster than expected growth in this segment can pull down overall company gross margin. • Trade investment for high-profile national club programs creates near-term margin pressure, even as it delivers long-term brand building and household penetration gains. • Cooler deployment and distribution growth depends on retailer rescheduling and installation timing, which can create short-term quarterly volatility in sales results. • Supply chain automation and productivity initiatives are multi-year projects, and full benefits may be delayed or differ from current expectations, though 2027 profitability does not depend on full realization of these benefits.

Analyst Q&A

Q: The analyst asks for clarity on the planned late-2026 price increase: which product types are impacted, and how much gross margin benefit can be expected? / A: Management confirms the price increase is selective, focused on a small portion of the portfolio, and is a low single-digit percentage increase. It will go into effect in September, with partial benefit in 2026 and full benefit flowing through in 2027. Confidence in limited volume impact comes from historical elasticity data and past experience with price adjustments, and the low magnitude of the increase means any unit impact will be nominal.

Q: Baby pouch sales decelerated in Q2 relative to expectations and the prior quarter; is this a timing issue or a reflection of underlying demand, especially against commentary around strong cooler productivity and innovation performance? / A: Management attributes the deceleration entirely to short-term timing of cooler reset and new cooler distribution deployment, not weak underlying demand. Core baby pouch consumption remains strong, and new baby pouch innovation has been highly incremental to the business. Most new coolers are scheduled to come online in Q3, so a significant sequential rebound in baby pouch growth is expected this quarter.

Q: What is the cadence of innovation, and can we expect a similar level of new product activity and potential new category entry in 2027? / A: Management confirms 2026 innovation activity is in line with historical levels as a percentage of total sales, focused on expanding assortments in existing categories. The company has consistently targeted one new category expansion every 12-18 months, and at least one new category launch is expected in 2027, remaining on track from prior guidance. A new functional kid pouch subline will launch in the coming weeks as a recent incremental innovation within the existing kid category.

Q: What is the long-term strategic importance of the cooler rollout, beyond its current small contribution to overall sales? / A: Management confirms coolers are strategically critical even as a smaller current business, as they act as a key entry point for new consumers. A refrigerated cooler in the baby aisle reframes consumer perception of the baby food category, and consumers acquired through cooler baby pouches and snacks have high repeat rates and are far more likely to grow with the brand into kid products as they age. With a long-term target of 15,000+ coolers, this segment will become a much larger contributor to growth over time.

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Aug 6, 2026