Research · Sep 3, 2026
[NMR] Nomura Thesis 2026: Wholesale Banking Cycle Drives Japanese Investment Banking Recovery
Nomura Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NMR) FY2026 (ending March 2026) revenue ~¥1,800-1,950B (~$11.5-12.5B; +5-10%) with diluted EPS ~¥120-150 reflecting continued post-2024 Wholesale (~¥850-925B; +10-15%) recovery + Wealth Management (~¥425-465B; +5-8%) + Investment Management (~¥160-180B) + selected post-2024 Japanese equity market post-Tokyo Stock Exchange reform supporting selected continued Investment Banking + Equity capital markets cycle recovery under continued President + CEO Kentaro Okuda (~5-year tenure since April 2020). Japan's largest investment bank + wealth management + asset management company. Founded December 1925 as Osaka Nomura Bank Securities Department in Osaka Japan by Tokushichi Nomura II (~100-year heritage); selected post-1949 Tokyo Stock Exchange listing IPO; selected post-2001 NYSE ADR listing; selected post-2008 ~¥225B aggregate Lehman Brothers Asia Pacific + Europe acquisition; selected post-April 2020 Kentaro Okuda CEO appointment; selected post-March 2022 Tokyo Stock Exchange reform driving selected continued Japanese Investment Banking cycle. Headquartered in Tokyo Japan; ~26,000+ employees globally with ~¥1,800-1,950B revenue. Four primary business segments: Wholesale (~50% revenue ~¥850-925B), Wealth Management (~25% ~¥425-465B), Investment Management (~10% ~¥160-180B), Other (~15% ~¥250-280B). Wholesale banking recovery cycle: ~¥850-925B FY2026 Wholesale revenue (+10-15% YoY); Investment Banking + Equity capital markets + Fixed Income + Equities + Global Markets; selected post-March 2024 Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) prime market PBR > 1x corporate value enhancement program driving Japanese ECM cycle recovery. Wealth Management franchise: ~¥425-465B FY2026 (+5-8%); ~¥130T+ aggregate AUM (~$830B+); ~5M+ Japanese retail customer relationships; selected post-January 2024 NISA expansion supporting Japanese household equity investment cycle. Investment Management ~¥160-180B FY2026; ~¥80T+ aggregate AUM (~$510B+); selected various ESG + alternative asset management. President + CEO Kentaro Okuda since April 2020 (~5-year tenure); CFO Takumi Kitamura. Capital return: ~¥35-40 annual dividend FY2026 (~+0-15% growth); ~¥150-200B aggregate FY2025-2026 buyback program; aggregate capital return ~¥250-300B; capital adequacy ratio ~17-19%; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Wholesale recovery cycle + Wealth Management franchise + Investment Management + ~¥150-200B aggregate buyback program + selected post-March 2024 TSE reform sustainability + ROE expansion. Risks: Wholesale cyclical, Japanese GDP growth, JPY/USD volatility, SMBC Nikko + Mizuho Securities + Daiwa Securities + Goldman Sachs + Morgan Stanley competition, TSE reform sustainability.