Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[NEM] Newmont Thesis 2026: Newcrest Synergies + Divestiture Program Completion + Gold Price Strength Anchor Capital Return Normalization

Newmont FY2025 revenue ~$19-21B (+5-8%) with adj. EPS ~$3.30-3.70 reflecting continued gold price strength ($2,400-2,600/oz average vs $2,275 FY2024 + $1,954 FY2023 — record highs) on central bank gold purchases (record 1,000+ tonnes/yr official sector buying FY2022-2024) + geopolitical safe haven demand + dollar weakness expectations + ETF inflows. Largest gold producer globally after Newcrest Mining $16.8B all-stock acquisition closed November 2023 (added Lihir PNG ~700K oz + Cadia NSW ~600K oz copper-gold porphyry + Brucejack BC ~300K oz high-grade underground + Telfer WA + Havieron + Wafi-Golpu development projects). 5 geographic regions: North America 25% + South America 15% + Australia 25% + Africa 13% + Asia Pacific 17%. CEO Tom Palmer since Oct 2019 (recovered from cancer 2023; selected interim leadership). Newcrest synergy realization: $205M FY2024 actual; FY2025 expected $350-400M cumulative; FY2026 target $500M run-rate. Divestiture program $2-3B selected non-core asset sales (Telfer + Akyem + selected) underway. Capital return framework constrained by deleveraging: base dividend $1.00/share (re-baseline from $1.60 FY2023 + $2.20 FY2022); variable dividend suspended; buybacks $0.5-1.0B; total $1.6-2.1B vs target $4-5B post-deleveraging. FY2026 thesis: Newcrest synergies year-2 + divestiture completion + capital return normalization with variable dividend reinstatement + gold price strength durability. Risks: gold price weakness, Newcrest synergies disappoint, operational disruptions.

Research · Jun 12, 2026

NEM Stock: Gold 6-Month Low and Newmont Mining Reset

Newmont operating leverage 2-3x gold spot. 8-12% spot decline produces 22-28% equity drop. Q1 net cash $3.3B supports cycle.

Research · Apr 13, 2026

CPI Hits 3.3% and Stagflation Fears Return — XOM, CVX, and NEM Top the Defense List

With March CPI surprising at 3.3%, stagflation fears are resurfacing. We analyze six defensive companies across energy, gold, utilities, and consumer staples, finding that Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Newmont offer the best combination of direct inflation exposure, reasonable valuation, and strong dividends for a stagflationary environment.

Research · Apr 13, 2026

Stagflation Trade: XOM and NEM Ranked Ahead of GS and NFLX Earnings

Ahead of March PPI and GS/NFLX earnings, stagflation favors XOM, NEM, and COST over vulnerable banks and streamers. Energy and gold lead with strong FCF and margins, while GS faces growth headwinds. Ranked picks emphasize cheap inflation hedges.

Research · Apr 13, 2026

Stagflation Trades Ranked: NEM, XOM, and COST Lead the April 2026 Inflation Hedges

As April 2026 data confirms building US inflation pressures, stagflation favors NEM, XOM, and COST most strongly among hedges like TIP, GLD, and XLU. Gold miner NEM leads with explosive growth, followed by energy titan XOM's value and Costco's resilience. Ranked plays offer clear portfolio tilts.

Research · Apr 10, 2026

Sudan-UAE Rift Squeezes Gold Supply — GLD Up 21%, NEM and GOLD in Focus

Sudan-UAE rift slashes gold exports, risking global supply tightness and lifting U.S. assets: GLD up 21% in 6 months, NEM's Africa ops poised for price tailwinds, GOLD's dealer model thrives on volatility. Bullish on scarcity premium.

Research · Apr 10, 2026

Stagflation Trade 2026: 6 Stocks Built to Win — XOM, NEM, COST Lead

Stagflation trades are gaining traction as inflation sticks and growth slows; energy giants XOM and CVX top the list for cash flow, followed by gold miner NEM, staples PG/COST, and utility NEE. Ranked conviction favors commodity producers with strong balance sheets.