Research · Sep 3, 2026
[NDAQ] Nasdaq Thesis 2026: Adenza Acquisition Tilts Mix Toward Financial Technology Subscriptions
Nasdaq Inc. FY2025 revenue ~$4.7-4.9B (+8-12% net of revenue) with adj. EPS ~$3.20-3.40 reflecting continued post-Adenza acquisition integration completion (Adenza $10.5B closed November 2023 — substantial financial technology + regulatory technology addition transforming Nasdaq into FinTech subscription business) + selected market services trading volume + selected capital access platforms (IPO + selected listings recovery) + selected operational excellence under continued CEO Adena Friedman. Global exchange operator + financial technology + market services + capital access platforms firm; founded February 8, 1971 by NASD as world's first electronic stock exchange (originally National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations; spun off from NASD via 2002 IPO + 2006 NASD divestment); headquartered in New York City; ~10,000+ employees across ~50+ countries. 3 segments post-Adenza November 2023 + post-Power & Water divestment February 2024: Capital Access Platforms 30% ($1.5B — listings + index licensing including Nasdaq-100 + Nasdaq Composite + ~$0.6T+ AUM tracking; QQQ ETF $300B+) + Financial Technology 36% ($1.7B post-Adenza, vs ~$0.5B pre-Adenza — Adenza Calypso trading + risk SaaS + AxiomSL regulatory reporting SaaS + Verafin acquired 2021 $2.75B financial crime/AML; ~85-90% recurring; ~95-97% retention) + Market Services 34% ($1.6B — cash equity + derivatives + fixed income trading + clearing). CEO Adena Friedman since January 2017 (succeeded Bob Greifeld CEO 2003-2017 retired; Friedman first female CEO of major US stock exchange; ex-Carlyle Group CFO 2011-2014 + ex-Nasdaq CFO 2009-2011; ~17+ year Nasdaq career; joined 1993). Adenza $10.5B all-cash + stock acquisition closed November 1, 2023 (~$80M annual cost synergies + ~$100M annual revenue synergies targeted; ~$2.5B integration costs FY2024-2026; ~$5.9B Adenza debt + ~$4.6B equity). Capital return: dividend $0.96-1.04/share annual + buybacks $0.5-1B (resumed post-Adenza balance sheet restoration); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Adenza integration + Financial Technology subscription scale + market services + capital return. Risks: integration friction, market volatility cycle, competitive intensity.