Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MCO] Moody's Thesis 2026: Issuance Recovery Lifts Ratings Cycle Through Analytics Stability
Moody's Corporation FY2025 revenue ~$7.5-7.8B (+10-13%) with adj. EPS ~$13.50-14.00 reflecting continued debt issuance recovery (selected post-2022-2023 trough corporate + sovereign issuance recovery; selected investment grade + speculative grade volume up FY2024-2025) + selected Moody's Analytics SaaS subscription growth + selected operational excellence under continued CEO Rob Fauber. One of two dominant global credit ratings + financial analytics + risk assessment firms (alongside S&P Global); founded 1909 by John Moody (Moody's Manual of Industrial and Corporation Securities published 1900; corporation incorporated 1909 in New York; spun off from Dun & Bradstreet 2000); headquartered in New York City; ~14,000+ employees across ~40+ countries. 2 segments: Moody's Investors Service 58% ($4.4B — corporate + sovereign + structured finance + financial institutions ratings; ~30-40% global ratings market share) + Moody's Analytics 42% ($3.2B — KYC + financial crime analytics Bureau van Dijk acquired 2017 $3.3B + risk assessment + economics + ESG/climate + RMS catastrophe risk modeling acquired September 2021 $2B; ~95% recurring subscription; ~95-97% retention). CEO Rob Fauber since January 2021 (succeeded Ray McDaniel CEO 2005-2020 who retired; Fauber ex-Moody's COO 2019-2020 + ex-MIS President 2016-2018; ~15+ year Moody's career). Capital return: dividend $3.40-3.60/share annual + buybacks $1.0-1.5B; investment-grade A2/A credit rating. FY2026 thesis: issuance recovery + Moody's Analytics SaaS scale + operational excellence + capital return. Risks: issuance cyclicality, regulatory environment, competitive intensity.