Research · Sep 3, 2026
LNC Lincoln Financial Group Thesis 2026: Annuities Group Protection Drive Post Restructuring Capital Rebuild
Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE: LNC), operating as Lincoln Financial Group, FY2026 thesis centers on continued Annuities + Retirement Plan Services pipeline (~$3.80-4.10B operating earnings) + Life Insurance + Group Protection pipeline (~$2.10-2.45B operating earnings) under continued President + CEO Ellen Cooper since May 2022 (~3.5-year tenure as Lincoln Financial CEO; selected post-May 2022 succession from Dennis Glass retirement after ~15-year tenure 2007-2022; selected primary architect of post-2022-2025 strategic turnaround + post-2023 wealth management divestiture to Osaic + post-2024 Bain Capital ~$825M aggregate strategic equity investment + post-2024-2025 RBC + free cash flow rebuild initiative). FY2025 revenue ~$18.50-19.50B (+0-5% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$7.85-8.65 reflecting continued ~$5.90-6.55B aggregate combined operating earnings. LNC operates 4 primary segments: Annuities (~$3.45-3.65B operating earnings) + Retirement Plan Services (~$0.35-0.45B) + Group Protection (~$1.45-1.60B) + Life Insurance (~$0.65-0.85B) with geographic mix US ~100%. Annuities + Retirement Plan Services pipeline (~$3.80-4.10B operating earnings + ~70-73% revenue mix combined): selected primary fixed annuity + indexed annuity + variable annuity + RILA (registered index-linked annuity) + ~$155-165B aggregate Annuities account values + ~$110-120B aggregate Retirement Plan Services account values + ~$10-14B aggregate FY2025 Annuities deposits (post-2022-2024 spread-based + fee-based annuity product mix shift toward fixed + indexed + RILA + variable annuity de-risking) + Retirement Plan Services 401(k) + 403(b) + 457 recordkeeping + administration + higher interest rate spread tailwind. Life Insurance + Group Protection pipeline (~$2.10-2.45B operating earnings + ~27-30% revenue mix): selected primary Group Protection (Group Life + Group Disability + Group Dental + Voluntary Benefits + ~$5.5-6.0B aggregate Group Protection premiums + ~88-92% aggregate Group Protection benefit ratio) + Life Insurance (Universal Life + Variable Universal Life + Term Life + ~$0.85-0.95T aggregate Life Insurance in-force face amount + post-2022-2024 Life Insurance reserve normalization + Bermuda reinsurance) + post-2024-2025 Group Protection margin expansion + Life Insurance new business pricing recovery. Capital position + balance sheet: ~$1.80 aggregate annual dividend (~20-25% payout; ~3.0-4.0% yield; post-2020 dividend cut from $1.60 → $0.45 then rebuild track) + no aggregate FY2025 buybacks (capital reinvestment + RBC + free cash flow rebuild priority) + aggregate capital return ~$310-320M FY2025 + RBC ratio ~430-450% (post-2024-2025 rebuild from ~370% trough) + aggregate Debt-to-Capital ratio ~24-28% + investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating at holding (post-2022-2023 downgrades) + ~170-175M diluted shares. FY2026 base case ~$19.50-20.50B aggregate revenue + ~$8.50-9.40 adj. EPS + ~$315-400M aggregate capital return; bull case Annuities + Retirement Plan Services pipeline acceleration (~$160-175B Annuities account values + ~$12-16B FY2026 Annuities deposits + spread-based + fee-based product mix shift + higher interest rate spread tailwind) + Life Insurance + Group Protection pipeline acceleration (Group Protection margin expansion to ~86-90% benefit ratio + Life Insurance new business pricing recovery) + post-2024 Bain Capital strategic partnership realization + RBC ratio rebuild to ~450-480% + ~FY2026-FY2027 buyback resumption drives ~$20.30-21.30B aggregate revenue + ~$9.40-10.40 EPS; bear case Equitable + Corebridge + Brighthouse + Jackson + Voya + Principal + MetLife + Prudential + Unum + Sun Life + Hartford competitive intensification + interest rate cycle considerations (spread compression) + equity market cycle considerations (variable annuity + account value sensitivity) + Group Protection benefit ratio cycle considerations + Life Insurance reserve + mortality cycle considerations + Bermuda reinsurance regulatory considerations + post-2022-2023 credit rating downgrade considerations + post-2020 dividend cut history considerations + post-May 2022 Ellen Cooper turnaround execution considerations drives ~$17.80-18.50B revenue + ~$6.85-7.65 EPS.