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HBM

Hudbay Minerals Inc.

NYSE · Basic Materials · Copper · CA

$27.43
−0.94%
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Analyst consensus

Next report date
Nov 4, 2026
EPS estimate
$0.35
Revenue estimate
$754.9M

Latest reported

Last report date
Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.28
EPS estimate
$0.26
Revenue actual
$631.3M
Revenue estimate
$633.4M

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
8
EPS misses (12Q)
3
EPS in line (12Q)
1
Avg surprise (4Q)
-17.8%
Revenue beats (12Q)
5

Analyst ratings

Sell-side consensus

Consensus
Buy
Price target
$31
PT range
$30 – $32
Analysts
3
2 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q2 FY2026 · Jul 29, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

• Leadership Changes

  • Eugene Lee was appointed President and Chief Financial Officer, recognizing his contributions to the company's transformation, unlocking Copperworld, achieving balance sheet targets ahead of schedule, structuring the Mitsubishi Copperworld partnership, and developing the company's capital allocation framework that enabled a dividend increase after more than a decade.
  • Rob Carter was appointed incoming Chief Operating Officer (replacing retiring Andre Lauzon in September 2026), recognizing his successful transformation of Manitoba operations into a core sustainable cash flow contributor and his work advancing British Columbia operations.
  • Andre Lauzon, current COO, will retire at the end of September 2026, leaving a legacy of operational efficiency systems that will support the company long-term.

• Operational Developments

  • The company achieved record trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion, driven by copper-gold diversification and strict cost control. Consolidated Q2 2026 copper production of 28,000 tons was higher than Q1, with higher British Columbia throughput offsetting planned lower throughput in Peru. Q2 2026 gold production of 51,000 ounces was lower quarter-over-quarter due to lower milled grades.
  • Peru: The team achieved improved productivity from fleet efficiency and haulage optimization; permit amendments increased Constantia's annual milling capacity to 34Mtpa from 31Mtpa. Installation of pebble crushers to increase throughput is on track for Q3 2026. A temporary port closure from ocean swells deferred ~10,000 dry metric tons of copper concentrate sales to early July 2026.
  • Manitoba: Labor availability constraints were addressed by hiring an external mining contractor to advance the 1901 deposit, allowing redeployment of skilled internal staff to critical Lalor mine areas, plus onboarding and upskilling 100 new internal employees. An unplanned June 2026 hoist gearbox failure was repaired quickly, and the hoist is now fully operational. The 1901 deposit remains on track for full production in late 2027. Early works have started on new tailings lines to increase throughput and leaching capacity at New Britannia mill.
  • British Columbia (Copper Mountain): A ball mill grinding constraint was identified during throughput ramp-up, and multiple improvement initiatives are underway to recoveries. The primary SAG mill was shut down in late June 2026 for a one-month feed end head replacement, which was completed on schedule, and the mill has restarted. The project remains on track to reach permitted 50,000 tons per day mill capacity in H2 2026. Official groundbreaking for the New Ingebelf project expansion was held, and the project was added to British Columbia's list of priority resource projects. Growth capital expenditures for 2026 in BC were increased by $30 million to $115 million to cover additional infrastructure costs for New Ingebelf.

• Growth Pipeline Progress

  • Brownfield expansions are expected to increase consolidated copper production by 24% to ~150,000 tons in 2027.
  • Copperworld (Arizona): 95% of engineering work for the definitive feasibility study (DFS) is complete, and a final investment decision (FID) remains on track for late 2026. DFS will reflect higher capital expenditures than the 2023 pre-feasibility study (PFS) due to general cost inflation and added scope for future mill expansion optionality, but project economics remain robust. Copperworld received $52 million in low-cost, long-term U.S. municipal bond proceeds in June 2026.
  • Cactus Project (Arizona): The acquisition of Arizona Sonoran was completed in June 2026, adding the Cactus project, the highest-grade undeveloped open-pit copper oxide project in the world. Staged development of Cactus after Copperworld allows shared use of the Arizona technical team and leverages regional synergies. A $30 million work program including updated PFS, de-risking, and exploration is planned for H2 2026, with the updated PFS expected in H2 2027.
  • Mason Project (Nevada): Pre-feasibility study activities commenced in Q2 2026, with completion expected in H2 2027.
  • Capital allocation remains focused on high risk-adjusted return opportunities under the company's existing holistic framework, with a strong balance sheet supporting growth. Long-term, the company has a clear growth roadmap: 24% copper production growth by 2027, 70% production growth to ~250,000 tons of copper per year by the end of the 2020s from Copperworld, and a line of sight to 500,000 tons of copper per year by the mid-2030s with the addition of Cactus and Mason.

Guidance

  • Full-year 2026 production guidance for all metals across all segments is reaffirmed, and the company remains on track to meet all production targets. Second half 2026 production is expected to be higher than the first half for both Manitoba and British Columbia operations.
  • Consolidated 2026 cash cost guidance for copper has been improved (lowered) from the initial range, driven by higher-than-expected throughput, stronger byproduct gold credits, and operating efficiencies. Year-to-date 2026 cash costs are approximately negative $1 per pound, and the guidance has enough buffer to absorb gold price declines below $1,850 (=$3,500 per ounce) and still meet the updated target.
  • British Columbia Copper Mountain project remains on track to achieve full permitted 50,000 tons per day mill throughput in H2 2026, and full-year 2026 cash cost guidance for the segment is reaffirmed, despite Q2 2026 cash costs coming in above the guidance range.
  • Constantia (Peru) 34 million tons per annum milling capacity is factored into three-year production guidance starting in Q4 2026, with potential upside to production if operational enhancements enable throughput above 34 million tons.
  • Copperworld DFS release is expected in early Q4 2026, with FID still on track for late 2026, and first production remains targeted for H2 2029.
  • Cactus Project updated pre-feasibility study is expected to be completed in H2 2027, and Mason Project pre-feasibility study is also expected to be completed in H2 2027.
  • An updated technical report/reserve update for Manitoba Snow Lake operations is expected to be released around the planned site visit in September 2026, demonstrating an improved long-term production and mine life profile.

Segment performance

Consolidated company results for Q2 2026: Total revenues of $631 million, adjusted EBITDA of $321 million, adjusted net earnings of $114 million ($0.28 per share), and operating cash flow of $210 million. Copper contributed 62% of gross revenues, and gold contributed a meaningful 38% of gross revenues. Trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA reached a record $1.3 billion, with $400 million in trailing 12-month free cash flow.

  1. Peru Segment: Produced 19,000 tons of copper, 5,000 ounces of gold, 565,000 ounces of silver, and 277 tons of molybdenum in Q2 2026. Cash costs were $1.66 per pound of copper. Total material moved hit 24 million tons for the quarter, with a record high monthly material moved achieved in May 2026. Average mill throughput reached 86,000 tons per day. The segment received a permit amendment to increase annual milling capacity at Constantia from 31 million tons to 34 million tons per annum.

  2. Manitoba Segment: Produced 40,000 ounces of gold, 2,300 tons of copper, 4,800 tons of zinc, and 209,000 ounces of silver in Q2 2026. Cash costs for gold were $776 per ounce. Average Lalor mine ore hoisting reached 3,500 tons per day, and the New Britannia mill processed an average of 1,900 tons of ore per day, holding steady at 90% gold recovery.

  3. British Columbia (Copper Mountain) Segment: Produced 6,500 tons of copper, 5,600 ounces of gold, and 71,000 ounces of silver in Q2 2026. Cash costs were $3.22 per pound of copper. Production increased quarter-over-quarter due to higher ore mined, improved grades, and higher mill throughput. Total material movement hit a record 30 million tons for the quarter, with an average daily mining rate of 331,000 tons per day, ahead of budget. Mill throughput reached an average of 40,000 tons per day, the highest quarterly average since Hudbay acquired the asset, representing a 17% increase from Q1 2026.

Risks & headwinds

  • External industry-wide cost pressures including higher fuel and other input costs persist, though the company is insulated from these pressures by its significant gold byproduct credits and diversified operating platform. For context, every $10 per barrel increase in WTI oil above the company's $65 per barrel budget only increases consolidated cash costs by 4 cents per pound of copper.
  • Labor availability constraints in Manitoba created short-term production impacts in Q2 2026, though these have been addressed with multiple mitigation strategies.
  • Unplanned equipment failures (such as the Lalor mine hoist gearbox failure in June 2026 and the Copper Mountain primary SAG mill liner erosion) can create short-term operational disruptions.
  • Copperworld capital expenditures are expected to be higher than the 2023 PFS estimate due to general industry cost inflation, and the final magnitude of the increase is not yet confirmed.
  • Evolving U.S. tariff policies create uncertainty for construction input sourcing and pricing for Copperworld, though U.S. copper tariffs also create a benefit of higher domestic copper prices for Hudbay's U.S. production.
  • Permitting timelines for U.S. projects can extend development timelines, even in a constructive permitting environment.

Analyst Q&A

Q: Labor constraints at Manitoba's Lalor mine in Q2 2026: have these been resolved, and have mining rates returned to normal in Q3? An updated technical report for Manitoba is expected in September — does that timeline still hold?

A: Labor constraints have been fully addressed via a multi-pronged strategy: hiring 100 new employees to onboard and upskill, contracting the 1901 deposit development to an experienced external contractor to redeploy skilled internal staff to critical areas, and supplementing crews with embedded contractors. Throughput has already increased significantly, with a 10% improvement in efficiencies achieved in the month following implementation. The updated Manitoba technical report, which will demonstrate an improved long-term reserve and production profile for Snow Lake, is still on track for publication around the September 2026 site visit.

Q: Copperworld capital expenditures are expected to be higher than the 2023 PFS. What is the magnitude of the increase, and will you retain future mill expansion optionality? What are the synergies between Copperworld and the newly acquired Cactus project?

A: The final magnitude of the Copperworld capital increase is not yet confirmed, as the company is still waiting for final contractor input to complete the DFS. Increases come from standard three-year cost inflation and additional scope to enable future mill expansion, aligned with existing contractual terms with Wheaton Precious Metals. Higher current and long-term copper prices will offset any cost increases, and project economics will remain robust. Key synergies include staging development to use the same technical team and construction workforce across both projects, and shared infrastructure that reduces costs for the Mason project, most notably for acid supply.

Q: What is the expected timeline for Copperworld's DFS release, and is FID still on track for 2026? Was the Lalor hoist gearbox failure an isolated event, and will it impact H2 2026 production?

A: DFS release is more likely to come in early Q4 2026 than Q3 2026, as the company and partner Mitsubishi complete required internal approval processes. FID for Copperworld remains on track for late 2026, with first production still targeted for H2 2029. The Lalor hoist failure was an isolated premature shaft and gear failure, with a critical spare already on hand that allowed the hoist to be repaired and back online within days of the June 2026 incident. There will be no meaningful impact on Q3 or Q4 2026 production, and the failed unit is being refurbished to serve as the new spare going forward.

Q: Does Hudbay retain appetite for further North American copper M&A, and does the region offer attractive consolidation opportunities?

A: The company's strategy has not changed: it continues to evaluate inorganic acquisition opportunities, but only pursues deals that meet stringent criteria and are accretive to shareholders. There are attractive consolidation opportunities in North America, particularly the U.S., but the company will remain highly disciplined in any future M&A activity, given its existing strong pipeline of organic brownfield and greenfield growth opportunities.

Q: With Constantia permitted now to 34 million tons per annum, is there a plan to increase throughput further to 37.5 million tons, and what is the timeline?

A: The company is pursuing low-capital operational improvements including adding two pebble crushers (expected online in September 2026), fragmentation and blasting optimization, ball mill modifications, and potential pebble sorting to increase throughput. The 34Mtpa permitted capacity is already factored into three-year guidance starting in Q4 2026, and any throughput above 34Mtpa would represent upside production in the medium term. There is no confirmed timeline yet for further expansion, as the team is still testing the impact of the ongoing improvements.

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 4, 2026