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The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company

NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts · US

$6.25
+2.29%
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Analyst consensus

Next report date
Nov 2, 2026
EPS estimate
$0.01
Revenue estimate
$4.6B

Latest reported

Last report date
Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
-$0.61
EPS estimate
-$0.63
Revenue actual
$4.3B
Revenue estimate
$4.2B

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
7
EPS misses (12Q)
5
EPS in line (12Q)
0
Avg surprise (4Q)
-24.4%
Revenue beats (12Q)
5
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q2 FY2026 · Aug 6, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

Overall Quarterly Performance

  • Q2 2026 performance was in line with prior guidance, with global tire volume improving sequentially from Q1, broader market stability, and moderated channel destocking compared to the prior quarter
  • EMEA and Asia Pacific delivered year-over-year financial improvement; Asia Pacific was a standout with volume and revenue growth and margin expansion across all business lines
  • Americas performance remained challenged by competitive markets and soft consumer demand, but delivered sequential volume improvement as destocking moderated

Product Portfolio Strategy

  • Long-term strategy focuses on investing in differentiated, high-value segments (ultra-high performance, larger rim sizes, all-season/all-weather tires) while retiring low-return SKUs
  • In Q2 2026, Goodyear launched the Vector All-Season 4 in EMEA, expanded the Cooper brand tire portfolio across passenger car, SUV, and light commercial segments in the region, and received industry recognition for product quality (AutoBuild named Goodyear top summer tire manufacturer, Tire Rack ranked the Eagle F1 All-Season as the leading ultra-high performance all-season tire)
  • Upcoming launches include new Cooper products in the U.S. and Canada, and a new Goodyear product in Latin America later in 2026

Manufacturing Footprint Optimization

  • The recently announced closure of the Fayetteville, North Carolina facility (7-8 million unit peak capacity) is aligned with portfolio strategy, with production winding down by end of 2027 and volume transitioning to existing facilities
  • The Fayetteville closure is expected to reduce Americas annual structural costs by $90 million in 2027 and $270 million per year thereafter, with total cash closure costs of ~$200 million
  • Goodyear continues targeted investment in modernization, automation, and digitalization across the global network to improve flexibility, efficiency, and capacity for high-value segments, with ongoing evaluation of additional footprint adjustments to align with strategy

Go-To-Market and Strategic Initiatives

  • OE partnerships are a core priority: OE market share gains across all regions (particularly in premium 18+ rim sizes) build long-term brand presence and create a pipeline for future replacement tire sales
  • In the replacement market, Goodyear is strengthening channel partnerships, expanding digital capabilities, and integrating the acquired Cooper brand into dealer loyalty programs
  • The Goodyear Forward cost-savings initiative is on track to deliver over $1.5 billion in total cumulative savings, with operating discipline embedded across the organization
  • U.S. company-owned retail is performing better than it has in over two decades, with a new consumer-centric concept store launching to reinforce brand engagement

Guidance

  • Third Quarter 2026: Global unit volumes for the remaining business are expected to be roughly flat year-over-year, with price and mix expected to deliver a $110 million benefit, Goodyear Forward expected to deliver $70 million in savings, and tariff headwinds expected to fall to $10 million. Raw material costs are expected to increase by ~$20 million due to Middle East conflict-related commodity price increases flowing through with a 4-6 month lag. Tax expense will remain elevated at ~$50 million, driven by the regional mix of earnings.
  • Full Year 2026: Full year segment operating income is expected to be in the range of ~$600 million, consistent with prior guidance. The largest full-year headwind is lower volumes and reduced fixed cost absorption, expected to reduce SOI by ~$350 million. Price and mix is expected to contribute over $200 million, with Goodyear Forward benefits expected to offset general inflation and other cost increases, and full-year tariff headwinds expected to total ~$50 million. Full year 2026 free cash flow is expected to be a burn of $200-$300 million.
  • 2027: Global volumes are expected to grow low single digits year-over-year, with continued moderate cash burn that is lower than 2026 levels. Raw material headwinds from 2026 second half commodity price increases are already baked into expectations, with potential stabilization benefits starting to flow through in 2027. Fayetteville closure costs will be ~$100 million for 2027, and the facility closure will deliver $90 million in structural SOI savings in 2027, incremental to ongoing productivity improvements that offset inflation.
  • 2028 and Beyond: Fayetteville closure structural savings will increase to $270 million per year, driving improved free cash flow and profitability.

Segment performance

Overall consolidated segment operating income (SOI) was $36 million for Q2 2026. Total company net sales were $4.3 billion, down 5% year-over-year (down 1% organically excluding divestitures of the chemicals business and Dunlop brand). Unit volume declined 4% year-over-year, with sequential improvement from Q1 2026.

  1. Americas: Unit volume decreased 9% year-over-year, driven by low-margin product line exits and soft U.S. consumer replacement demand. Channel destocking moderated, with consumer sell-in and sell-out down only 1-2% for the quarter. OE volume grew with market share gains, and commercial OE volume grew 15% year-over-year. Segment operating income was a loss of $10 million, weighed down by lower volume, tariffs, and inflation, partially offset by price/mix benefits and Goodyear Forward cost savings. The segment contributed a negative 2.3% of total consolidated segment operating income.

  2. EMEA: Unit volume decreased 2% year-over-year, with soft consumer replacement demand. Consumer OE achieved market share growth for the 10th consecutive quarter, and commercial volume improved across both replacement and OE segments. Segment operating income was a loss of $17 million; adjusted for the Dunlop brand divestiture, SOI improved $20 million year-over-year. The segment contributed a negative 3.9% of total consolidated segment operating income.

  3. Asia Pacific: Unit volume increased 5.3% year-over-year, with growth across consumer OE and replacement (particularly strong in Japan and China), outperforming a declining overall China OE market. Premium 18-inch and above rim size consumer tires grew 500 basis points as a share of total consumer sales year-over-year. Segment operating income increased to $63 million, equal to 12.7% of segment sales, with margin expanding 330 basis points year-over-year. The segment contributed 175% of total consolidated segment operating income.

Risks & headwinds

  • Sustained competitive pressure and 16 consecutive quarters of year-over-year volume decline have created meaningful global manufacturing overcapacity, leading to unabsorbed fixed cost headwinds
  • Raw material prices face continued uncertainty from geopolitical instability in the Middle East, with commodity price increases expected to flow through the income statement over a 4-6 month lag
  • Soft consumer demand and ongoing industry destocking in the Americas consumer replacement segment continue to pressure near-term performance
  • Elevated tax expense relative to pre-tax income will persist due to the current regional distribution of Goodyear's earnings
  • Cash restructuring costs for manufacturing footprint optimization will pressure free cash flow through 2027, before long-term savings are realized

Analyst Q&A

Q: Analyst asks to confirm third quarter volume expectations (flat total implying sustained OE growth and moderating replacement declines) and asks for Q4 and full year color on fixed cost absorption, price mix vs raw materials, and non-raw material inflation. / A: Management confirms that channel destocking and SKU rationalization headwinds are largely behind the company entering the second half, with much easier year-over-year comparables. OE growth continues across all regions, concentrated in premium 18+ rim sizes, with positive commercial OE trends emerging. For the full year, raw materials are expected to be neutral overall, with price/mix contributing over $200 million. Goodyear Forward benefits offset inflation, with volumes and fixed cost absorption driving the full-year SOI headwind of ~$350 million. Full year guidance is unchanged from prior calls, with SOI expected near $600 million.

Q: Analyst asks about future footprint adjustments after the Fayetteville closure, noting long-term volume declines and overcapacity, and asks about potential additional plant closures, asset sales, or retail business monetization. / A: Management states the Fayetteville closure removes 7-8 million units of excess capacity to balance supply and demand, delivering $270 million in annual longer-term SOI savings. Goodyear continues to drive >$1.5 billion in cumulative Goodyear Forward savings, with ongoing modernization and digitalization investments across existing facilities to improve flexibility. Additional restructuring activity is already underway in Eastern Europe, where a second plant is being closed and premium capacity is being consolidated to improve competitiveness. Management confirms the company is actively evaluating further adjustments as needed to align capacity with strategy.

Q: Analyst asks about commercial vehicle market trends in July-August 2026, specifically whether early recovery signs are emerging after a prolonged trough. / A: Management notes overall commercial fundamentals are improving: truck capacity is tightening, freight rates are rising, and the manufacturing PMI has stayed above 50 for all of 2026, indicating expanding activity. Goodyear's Q2 commercial OE shipments grew year-over-year for the first time in two years, reaching 100% year-over-year growth in June 2026 off a very depressed base. While overall freight volumes are still down year-over-year, improving fleet profitability from industry capacity rationalization supports a gradual recovery, though it will take more than a year for commercial OE production to return to mid-cycle levels.

Q: Analyst asks about Goodyear's view on its U.S. retail business amid ongoing industry M&A, whether retail is core to long-term strategy, and how consolidation impacts Goodyear's replacement market position. / A: Management confirms U.S. company-owned retail is currently performing better than it has in over two decades, and direct retail access keeps Goodyear close to end-consumer preferences, making it a core strategic asset. A new consumer-centric retail concept is launching to reinforce brand engagement. For independent dealers, Goodyear has successfully integrated Goodyear and Cooper loyalty programs into the Velocity program, earning strong dealer feedback. Amid ongoing industry consolidation, Goodyear has maintained or gained share by offering a full refreshed portfolio of products across all price points, aligned with dealer needs, after exiting only unprofitable low-margin SKUs.

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 2, 2026