GRBK
NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Oct 28, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $1.47
- Revenue estimate
- $469.4M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Jul 30, 2026
- EPS actual
- $1.70
- EPS estimate
- $1.42
- Revenue actual
- $493.8M
- Revenue estimate
- $470.0M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 10
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 2
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 0
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +16.3%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 11
Q2 FY2026 · Jul 30, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
Leadership Update
- Effective October 15, 2026, current President and COO Jed Dolson will be promoted to Co-CEO, in recognition of his long-standing contributions to the company's growth and alignment with the company's core HOME values (Honest, objective, mature, efficient).
Operational Performance
- Net new orders grew 19% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for affordable entry-level Trophy Signature Homes, especially in the DFW market where Trophy is now the third largest builder by volume. Average active selling communities grew 6% year-over-year to 108, and monthly sales pace increased 10% year-over-year to 3.3.
- Construction efficiency improved significantly: average construction cycle times decreased 29 days year-over-year to 124 days, with Trophy cycle times in DFW reaching a historic low of 84 days.
- Green Brick Mortgage continued rapid expansion: it closed 521 loans in Q2, with an average borrower FICO score of 736 and average debt-to-income ratio of 40%, consistent with the prior quarter. The company plans to roll out the mortgage platform to its Atlanta-based Providence Group brand in late 2026.
Land Strategy & Capital Structure
- The company maintains a disciplined self-directed land strategy, avoiding high-interest land banking that increases leverage and risk. As of Q2 end, 76% of approximately 52,000 total lots are owned, with 80% of all lots allocated to Trophy Signature Homes. Excluding future phases of long-term master plan communities, lot supply equals approximately 5 years of development.
- The company holds a strong investment-grade balance sheet with low leverage: home building debt to total capital was 11.2%, and net home building debt to total capital was 6.1%, among the lowest of public homebuilding peers. Total liquidity at Q2 end was $462 million, including $132 million in cash and no outstanding borrowings on the $330 million unsecured revolving credit facility.
- Capital allocation remains disciplined: the company returned $39 million to shareholders via share repurchases over the last 12 months, with $151 million remaining in authorized repurchase capacity, and will continue opportunistic repurchases.
- 2026 year-to-date land, lot and development investment totals $363 million, with $197 million allocated to land development (excluding reimbursements) and $166 million to land and lot acquisition.
Financial Performance
- Total Q2 2026 revenues were $494 million, with net income attributable to Green Brick of $74 million ($1.70 per diluted share). Book value grew 16% year-over-year to $44.82, return on assets was 11.8% and return on equity was 16%, outperforming peer medians.
Guidance
- Land and lot acquisitions for full-year 2026 are expected to total approximately $400 million, with land development outflows (excluding reimbursements) expected to total approximately $450 million.
- Green Brick Mortgage's capture rate is expected to exceed 70% by the end of 2026, following the rollout to new Texas and Atlanta markets, driving additional segment revenue.
- Average sales price is expected to decline directionally going forward, driven by the faster growth of lower-priced Trophy Signature Homes relative to the company's other flat-growth higher-priced brands.
- Total active selling community count is expected to continue increasing through the end of 2026, consistent with prior guidance.
- Management expects 2026 to serve as a foundation year for executing the company's strategy and accelerating growth in subsequent years.
Segment performance
- Home Building Segment: Generated home closings revenue of $472 million in Q2 2026, accounting for 95.5% of Green Brick Partners' total quarterly revenue of $494 million. The segment delivered 1,047 homes, achieved a gross margin of 29.8% (up 90 basis points sequentially), with a 19% year-over-year increase in net new orders to 1,079 units. Trophy Signature Homes, the entry-level brand, represented 60% of total Q2 home deliveries and 44% of backlog units (up from 26% year-over-year), with 80% of the company's total owned and under-contract lots allocated to this segment. 2. Financial Services Segment (Green Brick Mortgage): Reported Q2 2026 revenues of $12 million, up from $6.3 million in Q2 2025, accounting for approximately 2.4% of total quarterly revenue. Pre-tax income increased 91% year-over-year to $5.7 million. Funded loans rose 257% year-over-year and 43% sequentially, with 65% of loans issued to first-time homebuyers, and a 66% capture rate in Q2.
Risks & headwinds
- Elevated interest rates and persistent affordability pressures, as well as broader economic uncertainty, continue to dampen consumer confidence and create uneven demand across the company's operating markets.
- Recently announced Canadian tariffs and other trade actions pose potential risk to construction costs, though no material impact has been experienced to date.
- Atlanta market performance has been soft, driven by headwinds from H-1B visa issues and the brand's focus on the more pressured move-up housing segment in the region.
- Rising mortgage rates in July 2026 have created uneven demand that management is monitoring closely, with potential for increased incentives required if rates continue to move higher.
Analyst Q&A
Q: What drove the sequential improvement in gross margin, and what is the current margin profile of Trophy Signature Homes? What incremental capture rate growth can be expected from Green Brick Mortgage, and will all growth come from the Atlanta rollout? How has July 2026 buyer traffic responded to recent rising interest rates? / A: Trophy Signature Homes averaged 6 sales per month per community (double the company average), drove 60% of Q2 deliveries, and has a margin right in line with the company-wide average, making it the core driver of overall margin performance. Capture rate can still grow in existing Texas markets in addition to the upcoming Atlanta launch, with rate buy-down offerings for first-time buyers helping sustain high capture. July demand has been uneven: Florida's Vero Beach market had surprisingly strong sales, while Atlanta saw very weak activity, though overall demand for Trophy's affordable product remains strong when pricing and incentives are competitive.
Q: Why did homes under construction stay flat year-over-year despite rising absorption? What were the core drivers of the sequential gross margin improvement, beyond lower incentives and the one-time warranty reserve reduction? / A: Cycle times have dropped significantly year-over-year, allowing the company to keep finished inventory at targeted levels without increasing total units under construction, aligned with current sales pace. Lower direct construction costs for labor and materials (outside of rising lumber costs) helped lift margins, and the company's low-cost land position (no expensive land banking, conservative underwriting that avoids capitalizing high interest costs into lot values) is expected to deliver future margin tailwinds relative to peers.
Q: Will the company's current average selling price of $450,000 be the new norm? Is community count expected to grow in the second half of 2026? / A: Average selling price will decline directionally going forward, because lower-priced Trophy Signature Homes (with new community ASP around $325,000) is growing much faster than the company's other flat, higher-priced businesses, with an extra mix impact from Trophy expansion into lower ASP Austin and Houston markets. Management still expects community count to increase through the end of 2026, with no changes to prior expectations.
Q: Why does entry-level land still pencil for Green Brick when many peers are seeing more favorable underwriting for move-up land? Can the company pivot existing Trophy land to capture stronger move-up demand if needed? / A: Prime A-location land (the company's preferred target) remains in high demand regardless of price point; Green Brick's competitive advantage is its ability to entitle and develop large, complex long-term master plan communities that land bankers avoid. The company can and already does pivot within large communities to serve all price points, using its portfolio of existing brands to target entry-level, move-up, and luxury segments within the same development to match market demand.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Oct 28, 2026