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GILD

Gilead Sciences, Inc.

NASDAQ · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · US

$151.00
−0.15%
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Research · Sep 3, 2026

[GILD] Gilead Sciences Thesis 2026: Yeztugo HIV PrEP Launch Tests Post-Biktarvy Growth Replacement

Gilead Sciences FY2025 revenue ~$29.5B (+3-5%) with adj. operating margin ~36% reflecting HIV franchise stability (Biktarvy ~$13.5B dominant) plus emerging Yeztugo (lenacapavir for PrEP) commercial launch. Yeztugo (FDA approved June 2024) is most significant HIV prevention innovation in over decade — twice-yearly subcutaneous injection vs daily oral PrEP. PURPOSE-1 trial demonstrated 100% efficacy in cisgender women; PURPOSE-2 ~96% efficacy. FY2025 Yeztugo revenue ~$700M-1B (~75-100K patients). HCV revenue continues declining; Veklury COVID revenue compressed from $5.6B FY2021 peak to ~$1B FY2025. Trodelvy + CAR-T Oncology franchise growing. FY2026 thesis: Yeztugo ramps toward $2-3B (~200-300K patients); Oncology expansion sustained; Biktarvy LOE concerns 2033 but oral patents may face challenges earlier — pipeline replacement strategy critical; key risks: Yeztugo physician adoption slower than projected, Biktarvy generic challenge accelerated, Oncology execution issues.

Research · Apr 28, 2026

LLY: $2.3B Ajax Buy Hedges Mounjaro Patent Cliff

Eli Lilly's $2.3 billion Ajax Therapeutics acquisition reveals a critical divergence in large-cap pharma M&A strategy that the market has mispriced. While Merck and Pfizer scramble to replace patent cliff revenue with expensive blockbuster acquisitions, Lilly is buying rare-disease optionality from a position of GLP-1 strength. Long LLY versus short MRK/PFE targets 8-12% relative return over six months as earnings reveal the cost of desperate dealmaking.