Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Analysis

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[EXC] Exelon Thesis 2026: $38B Capital Plan + Northern Virginia + Chicago Data Center Demand + Pure-Play Transmission/Distribution Focus Anchor Rate Base Compounding

Exelon Corporation FY2025 revenue ~$23-24B (+5-7%) with adj. EPS ~$2.50-2.65 reflecting continued rate base growth + data center demand acceleration in Northern Virginia (Pepco) + Chicago (ComEd) + selected jurisdictions + selected rate case engagement. Pure-play Mid-Atlantic + Midwest regulated electric + gas utility post-Constellation spin-off February 2022 (transmission + distribution focus, no generation). Serves ~10.5M electric + ~1.7M gas customers across 6 regulated utility subsidiaries: ComEd (IL ~4.2M, $26B rate base) + PECO (PA ~1.7M+535K, $15B) + BGE (MD ~1.3M+700K, $11B) + Pepco (DC ~310K, $8B) + Delmarva (DE/MD ~530K+130K, $5B) + ACE (NJ ~570K, $5B). Combined rate base ~$70B; allowed ROE ~9.5-10.0%. CEO Calvin Butler since January 1, 2023 (succeeded Christopher Crane CEO 2012-2022 who passed away March 19, 2024 at age 65). Butler background: ex-Exelon Senior EVP + ex-BGE CEO + ex-ComEd selected; first African American CEO of Exelon. $38B 4-year capital plan FY2024-2027 (ComEd $15B + PECO $8B + BGE $6B + Pepco/Delmarva/ACE $9B). Northern Virginia data center alley adjacent (Pepco) + Chicago hyperscaler development (ComEd) driving accelerated load growth. Capital return: dividend $1.52-1.58/share (continued increases post-spin-off) + minimal buybacks; net debt $45-46B; Baa2/BBB+ investment grade. FY2026 thesis: rate base growth + data center demand + capital plan execution + dividend continuity. Risks: regulatory environment changes (Illinois ComEd rate case scrutiny), data center load forecasting, capital plan execution.

Research · Apr 30, 2026

ENPH: EU Green Pivot Hinges on China Supply Chains

Europe's renewable energy transition is creating a critical national security vulnerability: the continent's solar and wind supply chains are heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturers of battery cells, inverters, and turbine components. Companies like Enphase and SolarEdge source LFP battery cells exclusively from China, while wind turbine makers source materials and components from Chinese suppliers. The exposure varies sharply across the industry, with solar inverter and storage companies facing the highest China dependency. If European governments implement domestic content requirements or tariffs to force supply chain diversification, companies with the highest China exposure will face significant margin compression.