Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ED] Consolidated Edison Thesis 2026: NYC Climate Mobilization Drives Long-Cycle Capex Plan
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED) FY2025 revenue ~$15-15.5B (+0-3%) with adj. EPS ~$5.50-6.50 reflecting continued post-2024 NYC Climate Mobilization Act (Local Law 97) compliance investments + selected $40B+ FY2025-2034 capex plan deployment + selected NY State CLCPA decarbonization mandates support + selected post-March 2023 Clean Energy partial divestiture refocus + selected ~50-year longest NYSE dividend continuous track under continued CEO Tim Cawley (~3-year tenure since January 2022). Leading New York City + Westchester + Orange & Rockland regulated utility focused on electric + natural gas + steam distribution. Founded 1823 as New York Gas Light Company (~202-year heritage; selected one of oldest US utility companies; selected initial focus on selected NYC gas lighting); current Consolidated Edison formed 1936 via consolidation of New York Edison + Brooklyn Edison + selected various NYC utilities. Headquartered in New York New York; ~14,000+ employees globally with ~$15-15.5B revenue. Three reporting segments: Con Edison of New York ~80% revenue ($12B — ~3.6M+ electric + ~1.1M+ natural gas + ~1,500+ steam customers in NYC + Westchester; ~$30-32B aggregate rate base), Orange & Rockland Utilities ~10% ($1.5B — ~300K+ electric + ~140K+ natural gas customers in NY + NJ), Clean Energy Businesses ~10% ($1.5B — post-March 2023 sale of substantial utility-scale renewables to RWE Renewables Americas $6.8B; smaller retained CE businesses ~$1.5B revenue). $40B+ FY2025-2034 capex plan: NYC Climate Mobilization Act (Local Law 97) compliance (2024 effective date; ~$13-15B+ NYC building emissions reduction infrastructure investments through FY2034) + NY State Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) decarbonization mandates (~70% renewable electricity by 2030 + ~100% by 2040) + grid modernization ~$15B+ (smart grid + reliability) + pipeline replacement ~$8B+ (post-2018 PHMSA mandates + NYC natural gas safety) + customer growth ~$5B+; rate base growth ~7-9% CAGR through FY2034 supports ~6-8% EPS growth target via regulated utility return on equity ~9-10% (NY PSC authorized rates). 50+ year dividend track on NYSE: ~50+ consecutive year continuous dividend increases since 1975 representing selected longest continuous dividend track on NYSE (selected one of selected longest in S&P 500 alongside Procter & Gamble + Coca-Cola + selected dividend kings); ~$3.36-3.50 annual dividend FY2025 (~$0.84-0.875/quarter; ~3-5% annual increases — slower growth but selected longest continuity); FY2026 expected dividend toward $3.50-3.65 (+3-5%) maintaining ~51-year track. 2023 Clean Energy partial divestiture: March 2023 closing of Con Edison Clean Energy Businesses partial sale to RWE Renewables Americas $6.8B (~3 GW operating renewable + ~7 GW pipeline); post-divestiture proceeds deployed to debt reduction + regulated utility capex; ~$1.5B retained Clean Energy Businesses. CEO Tim Cawley since January 2022 (succeeded John McAvoy CEO 2014-January 2022 retired; Cawley ex-Con Ed of New York president 2020-2022 + ~30-year company career). Capital return: ~$3.36-3.50 annual dividend FY2025 (~50+ year longest NYSE track; dividend aristocrat); modest buybacks; investment-grade A3/A- credit ratings; FCF -$2-3B (post-capex investment). FY2026 thesis: capex deployment continued + NYC Climate Mobilization compliance + ~51-year dividend track + NY PSC rate case approvals. Risks: NY PSC disallowance, major NYC Climate Mobilization regulatory rollback, interest rate severe, major capital project cost overruns.