Research · Sep 3, 2026
Duke Energy FY2025 revenue ~$30-31B (+3-5%) with adj. EPS ~$6.10-6.30 reflecting continued rate base growth (~7-8%/yr) + data center demand surge in Carolinas + Indiana driving selected accelerated load growth + $73B 5-year capital plan deployment. One of the largest US regulated electric + natural gas utilities serving ~8.4M electric customers across 6 states + ~1.6M gas customers. Rate base ~$120B with allowed ROE ~9.6-10.0% drives ~$11.7B regulated earnings power. 5 regulated utility subsidiaries: Duke Energy Carolinas (NC+SC, 2.6M customers, $45B rate base) + Duke Energy Progress (1.7M, $25B) + Duke Energy Florida (2.0M, $25B) + Duke Energy Indiana (840K, $10B) + Duke Energy Ohio (720K, $5B) + Duke Energy Kentucky (150K) + Piedmont Natural Gas (1.2M gas customers). CEO Harry Sideris since April 2025 (succeeded Lynn Good 2013-2025 who became Executive Chair after 12-year CEO tenure). Sideris' background: Duke Energy COO 2023-2025; smooth internal succession with continuity in strategic framework. Carolinas + Indiana emerging as major US data center hubs: NC ranks #4 globally for data center capacity; selected hyperscaler development; selected new data center load forecasts ~3-5x normal load growth potential FY2025-2030. $73B 5-year capital plan FY2024-2028 (~$25B generation + ~$25B transmission/distribution + ~$5B gas LDCs + selected). Capital return: dividend $4.18-4.23/share (18 consecutive year increases) + minimal buybacks; net debt $80B; Baa2/BBB+ investment grade. FY2026 thesis: rate base growth + data center demand + capital plan + Sideris transition + dividend continuity. Risks: regulatory environment changes, data center load forecasting, capital plan execution.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Bond traders' inflation hedges spotlight hawkish Fed risks, positioning banks like JPM and BAC for NIM gains while utilities (NEE, DUK), REITs (PLD), and HD face debt and demand headwinds. JPM tops conviction rankings with superior scale; DUK ranks most vulnerable. Elevated rates reshape sector winners and losers.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Hotter-than-expected inflation dashed rate cut hopes, favoring banks like JPM and WFC via NIM expansion while pressuring debt-laden REITs (PLD, AMT) and utilities (NEE, DUK). JPM tops conviction ranks with superior scale; REITs lag on cap rate risks. Prolonged high rates could widen these gaps further.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Spire completes $2.48B buy of DUK's Tennessee gas unit, expanding into Nashville growth markets with accretive EPS potential. SR's fwd P/E at 15.8x undervalues the scale-up, though leverage bears watching; DUK uses proceeds for capex efficiency. Bullish on SR for 5-7% EPS trajectory.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
As inflation eases, US utilities are poised for growth driven by infrastructure investments. Duke Energy and American Electric Power emerge as strong candidates, while Dominion Energy and Entergy face challenges. Monitoring regulatory changes and economic conditions will be crucial.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
ETF Trends' March 2026 10-year Treasury yield analysis forecasts elevated rates, favoring banks like JPM and BAC via NIM expansion while pressuring leveraged utilities (NEE, DUK) and REITs (PLD, AMT) on debt costs and valuations. JPM tops conviction rankings for its balance sheet strength; AMT ranks as most vulnerable.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Piedmont Natural Gas closed its $2.48B sale of Tennessee operations to Spire on March 31, 2026, delivering cash to Duke Energy for strategic reinvestment. The move streamlines the portfolio toward high-growth electric assets amid utility consolidation. Investors benefit from deleveraging and sustained dividends, supporting a bullish outlook.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Century Aluminum's Mt. Holly restart to full 230,000-tonne capacity targets end of June 2026, backed by an extended Santee Cooper power contract through 2031 at cost-of-service rates that insulates against the worst of US power volatility. With $135.6M in cash and Q1 FY2026 EBITDA guided at $215–235M, the $50M project appears well-funded, though operational execution and aluminum price risk remain the key variables to watch.
