Dollar General Corporation (DG) Stock Analysis

Research · Sep 3, 2026

[DG] Dollar General Thesis 2026: Execution Reset After Expansion Overshoot

Dollar General's FY2025 (ended January 31, 2025) tells a story of top-line growth masking a significant profitability reset. Revenue grew 4.6% to $40.6B and same-store sales turned positive at +1.4%, but EPS fell 29% to $7.55 as operating margin compressed to ~5.5% from 6.6% — driven by shrink, SNAP-constrained core consumers, and intentional 'Back to Basics' labor investment under returning CEO Todd Vasos. With ~20,345 stores, POpshelf still unprofitable at ~300 locations, FCF pressured by elevated capex, and FY2026 guidance cautious, the thesis centers on whether the operational reset can restore sustainable margins before the market prices in a structurally impaired unit economics profile.

Research · Mar 12, 2026

Can Ollie's maintain unit economics as it accelerates from 50 to 75+ stores per year?

Ollie's opened 86 stores in the first 39 weeks of FY2025 — more than double the prior-year pace — while maintaining operating margins at 10.1% and capex per store near the $1.0M target model. SG&A leverage, declining per-store pre-opening costs, and distribution capacity to 750 stores suggest unit economics are holding through the acceleration, though pre-opening expenses as a percentage of sales have doubled and will require monitoring as annual openings push higher.