Research · Sep 3, 2026
[DASH] DoorDash Thesis 2026: GMV Growth + Wolt International Integration + New Verticals (Grocery + Retail) Anchor Profitability Inflection Phase
DoorDash FY2025 revenue ~$11-12B (+18-22%) with adj. EPS ~$1.50-2.00 reflecting continued strong GMV growth (+15-20% YoY toward ~$80-85B annual) + DashPass subscription growth + Wolt European integration full-year contribution + selected new verticals expansion (grocery + alcohol + retail) + profitability inflection (GAAP profitable since 2023; continued margin expansion). Largest US food delivery platform serving ~37M monthly active users + ~2M+ Dashers + ~600K+ merchants. Multi-segment platform: US Marketplace ~75% (restaurant food delivery + DoorDash Drive white-label) + DashPass subscription ~20% ($9.99/month + selected) + International ~10% (Wolt acquired $8B 2022 + 25+ European/APAC markets) + New Verticals ~5% growing. CEO Tony Xu since founding 2013 (Stanford students Xu + Stanley Tang + Andy Fang + Evan Moore co-founded DoorDash). IPO December 9, 2020 (NASDAQ direct listing $102/share initial → $182/share first-day +78%). Wolt $8B all-stock acquisition closed May 2022 (Finland-based European delivery growing +25-35%/yr post-acquisition). GAAP profitable since Q4 2023; FY2024 adj. EPS $0.42 + FY2025E $1.50-2.00 + FY2026 target $1.80-2.50 (continued margin expansion). California Prop 22 upheld California Supreme Court July 2024 (selected favorable gig worker classification outcome). Capital return: no dividend + buybacks $1-1.5B; net cash $5B+; no formal credit rating. FY2026 thesis: GMV growth +15-18% + Wolt integration + new verticals + profitability sustainment. Risks: gig worker regulatory pressure, Uber Eats + Instacart competitive intensity, takeout demand cyclical.