Skip to content

CTO

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.

NYSE · Real Estate · REIT - Diversified · US

$21.46
+0.16%
Ask drillr

Next report

Analyst consensus

Next report date
Oct 27, 2026
EPS estimate
$0.20
Revenue estimate
$45.2M

Latest reported

Last report date
Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.38
EPS estimate
$0.10
Revenue actual
$43.8M
Revenue estimate
$42.3M

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
6
EPS misses (12Q)
6
EPS in line (12Q)
0
Avg surprise (4Q)
+0.1%
Revenue beats (12Q)
8

Analyst ratings

Sell-side consensus

Consensus
Buy
Price target
$25
PT range
$24 – $25
Analysts
2
2 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q2 FY2026 · Jul 29, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

Leasing Activity

  • Executed 25 new leases, renewals, and extensions totaling 213,000 square feet in Q2 2026, with 184,000 square feet of comparable leases achieving a 6% positive cash rent spread. Year-to-date, 366,000 total square feet of leasing has been completed, with 330,000 square feet of comparable leases achieving a 10% positive cash rent spread.
  • The signed but not open pipeline totals 6.3 million in annual rent, representing approximately 5.8% of in-place annual cash-based rent, providing visible earnings growth as tenants take possession through late 2026 and 2027.
  • Eight of nine legacy vacant anchor boxes have been leased, with negotiations ongoing for the final box; the nine combined anchor spaces are expected to deliver an approximately 75% positive lease spread, which will also drive higher foot traffic to host shopping centers.

Capital Recycling & Investment Activity

  • Completed $153 million in total investments in Q2 2026 at a weighted average initial yield of 10.2%. Year-to-date, $234.2 million in total investments have been completed at a weighted average yield of 9.5%.
  • Acquired the fully occupied 152,000 square foot Gallery on the Parkway open-air retail power center in Dallas, Texas for $53.3 million, located in a high-demand growth corridor near the proposed new Dallas Mavericks arena.
  • Completed $90.7 million in property dispositions in Q2 2026 at a weighted average exit cap rate of 6.7%, exiting low-cap-rate stabilized assets to recycle capital into higher-yielding opportunities. The New Mexico office property, the firm's last remaining non-core asset, will be taken to market after the state of New Mexico fully occupies the property this fall.
  • Originated two preferred equity investments totaling $96.4 million in Q2 2026, both with 12% initial yields. A post-quarter $37 million first mortgage investment in an Austin mixed-use property brings the structured portfolio to its target 15% allocation.

Out-Parcel Development Initiative

  • Two of six identified out-parcel opportunities have been leased to date, with active negotiations ongoing for the remaining four. The full set of six out-parcels is expected to generate a low double-digit unlevered yield on $30 million in total investment, with capital deployed in late 2026 and 2027, and full earnings contribution expected in 2028.

Balance Sheet

  • Ended Q2 2026 with $131.8 million in total liquidity, consisting of $107 million in undrawn revolving credit commitments and $24.8 million in cash. Issued 4.2 million common shares via the ATM program in Q2 2026 for $83.6 million in net proceeds.
  • Net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA declined 0.6x to 5.8x quarter-over-quarter, with further deleveraging expected as the signed not open pipeline commences rent payments.

Guidance

  • Full year 2026 core FFO guidance was raised to $2.09 to $2.13 per diluted share, up from the prior range of $2.06 to $2.11 per diluted share. At the midpoint, this represents approximately 13% core FFO growth over 2025 actual results.
  • Full year 2026 AFFO guidance was raised to $2.21 to $2.25 per diluted share, up from the prior range of $2.19 to $2.24 per diluted share.
  • Full year 2026 total investment volume guidance (including commercial loans and structured investments) was raised by over $100 million to a new range of $300 million to $400 million, up from the prior range of $175 million to $250 million. Management expects to close at least one additional acquisition before year end.
  • Full year 2026 shopping center same-property NOI growth guidance was raised to 5% to 6%, up from the prior range of 3.5% to 4.5%. Management expects same-property growth to moderate from the first half pace due to easier comparables, but still remain healthy in the second half.
  • Full year 2026 general and administrative expenses are guided to a range of $20 million to $20.2 million.

Segment performance

  1. Shopping Centers: Q2 2026 same-property NOI increased 10.1% year-over-year. Year-to-date same-property NOI increased 8.2% (7% excluding non-recurring first-quarter recovery benefits). As of quarter end, the total portfolio was 95.4% leased, up 150 basis points year-over-year. This segment is the core operating asset of the firm, representing approximately 85% of undepreciated assets.
  2. Structured Investments: After a post-quarter $37 million first mortgage origination, the pro forma structured investment portfolio totals approximately $222 million, representing 15% of undepreciated assets (the firm's target allocation), with a weighted average yield of 11.5%. In Q2 2026, the portfolio generated 12% average initial yields on new originations.
  3. Alpine Income Property Trust (Pine): Income from Pine totaled $2.1 million in Q2 2026, consisting of $1.4 million in management fees and $0.7 million in dividend income. The current annualized run rate of income from Pine is $8.9 million, a $0.4 million increase from the prior annualized run rate.

Risks & headwinds

  • Actual future results may differ materially from forward-looking guidance due to various unforeseen factors, as detailed in the firm's SEC filings.
  • Q3 2025 had an unusually low bad debt expense, creating a tougher year-over-year comparable that will moderate reported Q3 2026 same-property NOI growth.
  • Investment and disposition activity can cause leverage to fluctuate quarter over quarter, even with an overall trend of deleveraging.
  • Most interest rate swaps for Alpine Income Property Trust's term loans are expiring in January 2027, and new swaps are expected to reset to higher market rates of approximately 5%.

Analyst Q&A

Q: Why did the firm sell the Madison Yards property in Atlanta, and what value-add opportunity exists in the new Gallery on the Parkway acquisition in Dallas? / A: The sale was to reduce outsized exposure to the Atlanta market, remove AMC as a tenant from the portfolio, and capitalize on a low exit cap rate to recycle capital into higher-yielding opportunities. The Dallas acquisition is a 100% occupied core asset in a high-growth location near the new Dallas Mavericks arena. It has a higher cap rate than typical stabilized assets, with an optional value-add opportunity to sell a pad site for additional yield accretion. (278 chars)

Q: What market fundamentals are driving the upward revision to same-property NOI guidance, and do power centers now offer landlords greater pricing power? / A: The power center market has strengthened considerably, as large format sites in desirable locations are scarce and cannot be replicated at current acquisition costs, and power centers are evolving into mixed-use community centers that attract diverse tenant demand. The upward guidance adjustment comes from three factors: early-year conservative forecasting, faster-than-expected tenant move-ins, and lower-than-expected expenses from internalized management, lower insurance costs, and lighter timing of repair and maintenance. (382 chars)

Q: How will leverage evolve after reaching 5.8x net debt to adjusted EBITDA at quarter end, and will current expense tailwinds continue through the second half of 2026? / A: Further deleveraging of approximately 0.5x is expected as the signed not open pipeline commences rent payments and organic leasing delivers rent bumps. The lower insurance and internalized management expense tailwinds will continue through the second half of 2026, though comparable growth will moderate due to the 2025 Q3 low bad debt comp and lapping of prior year new anchor rent commencements. (307 chars)

Q: How is the changing interest rate outlook impacting the risk profile of the structured investment platform? / A: The current rate environment, where many borrowers and developers were counting on lower rates to refinance maturing debt, is expected to increase deal flow for the platform, as the firm can provide financing solutions that borrowers cannot obtain from traditional banks. This creates more attractive investment opportunities for the firm going forward rather than increasing risk. (251 chars)

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Oct 27, 2026