Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CPAY] Corpay Thesis 2026: Corporate Payments Organic Growth Becomes the Primary Value Driver
Corpay, Inc. (formerly Fleetcor) FY25 revenue $4.53B (+14%); cash EPS $21.38 (+12%); organic revenue +10% full-year. Q4 revenue $1.248B (+21%); cash EPS $6.04 (+13%); cash EBITDA >$700M; new sales/bookings +29% YoY; same-store sales +1%; revenue retention stable 92%. Segment performance — Corporate Payments: +16% organic Q4 (Alpha overperformance; spend volumes +44% pro forma to >$81B); Cross-border strong sales + revenue (Alpha integration; first joint sale with Mastercard); Payables strong Q4 sales (early market penetration; Avid strategic investment). Vehicle Payments +10% organic (US, Europe, Brazil strong). Lodging <10% revenue, -7% Q4 (low single-digit growth 2026 with H1 headwinds). FY25 acquisitions: Alpha, Avid, second Brazilian vehicle debt company. Mastercard investment in cross-border business. Total debt $10.12B (+27% reflecting M&A). Buyback $-783M (-39% YoY redirected to M&A). FY26 guide: full-year revenue midpoint $5.265B (+16% YoY); cash EPS midpoint $26 (+22% YoY); drivers — fundamentals + accretive acquisitions (Alpha + Avid ~$300M incremental revenue, ~$1 cash EPS) + favorable macro (FX, SOFR, constant tax). FY26 priorities: simplify portfolio, accelerate corporate payments rotation, improve US vehicle + lodging sales, expand payables, enhance cross-border (multicurrency + stablecoin), AI in client UIs + reduce live agent expense. Risks: M&A integration, FX dependency, payables ramp, Vehicle competition (WEX, Edenred), Lodging cyclicality, leverage trajectory.