Research · Sep 3, 2026
Coinbase Global Inc. FY2025 revenue ~$6.5-7.0B (+0-5%) with adj. EPS ~$7.50-8.50 reflecting continued post-2024 crypto bull cycle digestion (Bitcoin +60-70% YoY 2024 → consolidation 2025) + selected USDC stablecoin revenue growth from Circle partnership + selected Coinbase Prime institutional + selected subscription & services diversification + selected operational excellence under continued founder-CEO Brian Armstrong. Largest US public cryptocurrency exchange + custodian + trading platform; founded June 2012 by Brian Armstrong + Fred Ehrsam (Ehrsam left 2017) in San Francisco; IPO via direct listing April 14, 2021 (~$86B opening valuation; first major crypto company to IPO); remote-first company (no physical HQ; Delaware legal jurisdiction). ~110-120M verified users across ~100+ countries + ~$300-340B assets under custody (~$170B+ institutional via Coinbase Prime + selected retail); selected ~3M+ monthly transacting users (MTUs); selected USDC stablecoin ~$50-65B circulation. CEO Brian Armstrong since founding 2012 (~13-year tenure; ex-Airbnb engineer + Y Combinator Summer 2012 alumnus). Armstrong's tenure has executed Coinbase IPO 2021 + selected 2022-2023 crypto winter operational reset (~25% workforce reduction June 2022 + ~20% additional January 2023) + 2024 crypto bull cycle recovery (Bitcoin spot ETF approval January 2024 + ~80% Bitcoin ETF custody contracts won) + 2024-2025 subscription & services pivot + selected stablecoin revenue from USDC Circle partnership (Circle IPO completed June 5, 2025; ~50/50 yield split on USDC reserves). No dividend; share-based compensation ~$1B+ annually (selected dilution); investment-grade Baa3/BBB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: stablecoin revenue + subscription & services + institutional growth + crypto cycle navigation. Risks: crypto cycle, regulatory environment, interest rate cycle, competitive intensity.
Research · Jun 9, 2026
Long-term holders distributed $2.4B BTC in 48 hours. On-chain LTH-to-STH pattern as cycle inflection signal. COIN, MSTR, MARA, IBIT positioning.
Research · Jun 8, 2026
Bitcoin keeps falling but Wall Street's institutional crypto hype builds. What the unusual tension means for the IBIT ETF and COIN setup.
Research · Jun 7, 2026
Bloomberg reports SpaceX IPO underwriters were told to refuse China/HK retail orders on security grounds. What it means for TSLA and Musk's universe.
Research · Jun 5, 2026
Coinbase launched pre-IPO perpetual futures on SpaceX, giving retail synthetic exposure to a mega-private. How it works and what it means for COIN.
Research · Jun 4, 2026
Bitcoin at February lows reprices COIN at $163 and MSTR at $127. Transaction volume versus NAV premium compression — asymmetric outcomes.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Blackstone's Q1 beat and 'best year ever' IPO forecast confirm the $197B pipeline is executable, yet Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley trade at the same 12-13x forward multiple as JPMorgan despite deriving 18-22% of revenue from investment banking versus JPM's 7%. Long GS and MS versus JPM over six months targets 8-12% relative return as Q2 and Q3 underwriting revenue surfaces the fee differential.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Bitcoin's rally to $73K on hot 3.3% CPI data highlights US-listed crypto winners like MSTR and COIN. Miners MARA, RIOT, and CLSK benefit from holdings and efficiency, with AI pivots adding upside. Ranked by conviction: MSTR leads.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Morgan Stanley's launch of the lowest-cost Bitcoin ETF marks a milestone in institutional adoption, benefiting custodians like COIN and BK, exchanges CME/NDAQ, issuer MS, and proxy MSTR. Analysis ranks COIN top for its ETF custody dominance amid record volumes and diversification. Watch ETF inflows and crypto derivatives growth as key catalysts.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
CFTC's lawsuit against Illinois boosts prediction markets by asserting federal control, favoring platforms like IBKR's ForecastEx and CME's event contracts. DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase gain from product launches, while JPMorgan eyes indirect entry. Ranked: IBKR > CME > DKNG.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
JPM CEO Jamie Dimon's prediction markets comments spotlight growth potential for exchanges like CME and brokers like IBKR. We rank six players by exposure, with CME leading on scale and profitability. Banks' entry could multiply volumes but intensify competition.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Malta's dispute with EU crypto regs spotlights MiCA risks, favoring US-listed winners like COIN and HOOD for volume gains while miners MARA/RIOT pivot. Diversified PYPL/SQ lag. Ranked: COIN > HOOD > MARA.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
The CFTC's settlement with ex-FTX exec Nishad Singh highlights enduring regulatory risks for public crypto firms, with exchanges like COIN most exposed while miners pivoting to AI (MARA, CLSK) offer relative safety. Financials show robust revenue growth across the board but persistent losses and high valuations. Ranked conviction favors diversified miners over pure-play exchanges.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
SEC fines surged in FY2025 per Bloomberg's April 7 report, shifting from Biden priorities—hammering financials (JPM, GS) and crypto (COIN) via debt strains and probes, while tech holds firm. Banks' profits resilient; COIN vulnerable. Bullish JPM/GS, cautious elsewhere.
