Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CHTR] Charter Communications Thesis 2026: Cox Merger and Capex Surge Reshape Cable Competitive Position
Charter Communications, Inc. FY25 revenue $54.77B (-0.5%); op income $13.32B (+1%); NI $4.99B (-2%); EPS $36.21 (+4%). FCF $4.42B (+40%). Q4 lost 119K Internet customers (improved YoY); added 428K mobile lines; video customers grew 44K (vs -123K Q4 FY24); wireline voice -140K; rural +46K net adds. Residential revenue -2.4%; commercial +0.3% (mid-market + large +2.6%); small business -1.3%; advertising -20% (flat ex-political); other +7.3%. Total opex -3.1%; programming -8.4%; cost to service -3.9%. Adj EBITDA Q4 -1.2%; FY25 +0.6%. Q4 capex $3.3B; FY25 $11.66B; FY26 ~$11.4B; capex on downward trajectory after 2026; run-rate <$8B/yr post-evolution. Total debt $97B; weighted avg cost of debt 5.2%. Buyback $5.13B FY25 (+323% vs $1.21B FY24); Q4 buyback $760M. Cox merger pending; post-transaction target leverage low end 3.5-3.75x (3 years post-close). FY26 framework: EBITDA growth excluding transition costs; H1 more challenged than H2 (one-time Q1 2025 benefits + political advertising 2026). Risks: Internet competitive (T-Mobile + Verizon FWA + fiber overbuilders), Cox regulatory approval, video secular decline, network capex execution, leverage management, interest rate environment.