Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CF] CF Industries Thesis 2026: Carbon Capture Live as Fertilizer Cycle Matures
CF Industries (CF) FY25 (Dec) revenue $7.084B (+19.3%); op income $2.365B (+35.5%); adj EBITDA ~$2.9B; EPS $8.97 (+33%); FCF $1.802B (+2.8%); cash $1.982B; total debt $3.947B. Donaldsonville CCS project started July 2025 — $100M+ annual incremental EBITDA from 45Q tax credits + low-carbon premium; first full year FY26. Blue Point JV (CF ~50%, JERA, Mitsui) FID April 2025; $3.7B total cost, CF portion ~$2B over 4 years; civil work Q2 2026; export ultra-low carbon ammonia to Japan/EU. Yazoo City incident Nov 2025 — offline Q4 2026 earliest; FY26 gross ammonia guide ~9.5M tons (vs ~10M+). Abatement portfolio: $150-200M incremental FCF by end of decade from N2O abatement + additional CCS. FY26 CapEx: ~$1.3B total, CF portion ~$950M. $2B buyback program active through 2029. CBAM competitive advantage for certified low-carbon ammonia in EU. Global nitrogen market constructive. Risks: Yazoo City, N price cycle, Blue Point execution, 45Q policy, nat gas, CBAM timing, China exports.