Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CCL] Carnival Corporation Thesis 2026: Deleveraging Re-Rating as Net Debt Falls Toward $25B
Carnival's FY2025 was the inflection year: net yield ~$259 (+7.9%), adj. EBITDA ~$6.2B, adj. EPS ~$2.95, and net debt declining from $32B pandemic peak toward ~$27B. The FY2026 thesis is a deleveraging re-rating story — each $1B of debt retired saves ~$55M in interest expense and improves the credit profile toward investment grade, creating a compounding EPS tailwind that could drive EPS toward $4+ by FY2027 if net yield growth of 4-6% continues and leverage approaches 3x.