Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CBRE] CBRE Thesis 2026: Commercial Real Estate Recovery Drives Revenue and Earnings Scale
CBRE Group, Inc. FY25 revenue $40.55B (+13%); op income $1.29B; NI $1.16B (+20%); EPS $3.85 (+23%). FCF $1.19B; debt $9.99B (+75% — Pearce + Turner & Townsend integration). Buyback $-968M (+54%). Q4 revenue +12% with double-digit leasing + sales. Advisory: EMEA leasing +29% (Continental Europe +29%; UK +16%); US leasing strong (data centers doubled, industrial +20%); Capital Markets sales + commercial mortgage originations high-teens (US sales +27% — office + multifamily; mortgage origination fees +20%). BOE: data center solutions +20%; segment OP +20% (Pearce Services). Project Mgmt: hyperscaler real estate + UK public sector. Real Estate Investments AUM $155B (+$9B). Data Center Solutions targeting $2B in 2026 (+20% YoY); 14% of FY25 core EBITDA. FY26 core EPS guide $7.30-$7.60 (+17% midpoint); Advisory low teens SOP; BOE mid-teens; Project Mgmt low teens; Real Estate Investments matching strong 2025; Q1 ~15% of full-year EPS. Risks: CRE cycle dependency, leverage trajectory, data center hyperscaler concentration, office leasing structural pressure, integration execution, competitive landscape.