Research · Sep 3, 2026
Blackstone FY2025 revenue ~$10.5B with adj. EPS ~$5.65 — recovering from FY2023 EPS trough $3.20 reflecting deal activity compression. AUM reached record $1.18T+ (vs $880B FY2022 = 34% growth). Credit & Insurance platform fastest-growing — AUM grew from $200B FY2022 to $370B FY2025 (85% over 3 years) on private credit secular growth + insurance asset management partnerships (Allstate + selected). Real Estate ($370B) recovering from FY2023-2024 commercial real estate cyclical compression + BREIT redemption pressure stabilizing. Realized performance allocations recovering from FY2023 trough $1.5B to $2.5B FY2025 (vs $8.5B FY2021 peak). FY2026 thesis: Credit & Insurance toward $500B+ FY2027; Real Estate cycle recovery + selected sub-segments (industrial/data center/multifamily); realized performance allocations toward $3-5B+ as PE exit activity normalizes; key risks: real estate cycle persists, private credit competitive intensity, carried interest tax changes.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Non-traded fund redemptions of 10-38% pulled bidders out of large sponsor loans; KBDC printed SOFR+566 and FSK saw spreads up to 75bp wider.
Research · Jun 13, 2026
KKR public: AI productivity boom continuing. 100bp portfolio margin lift implies $18B fair value adjustment vs $90B market cap.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
Banks transferred $1T loan risk via SRT (+26% YoY). Alt managers ARES, KKR, BX capture premium income. Hidden side of private credit retail stress.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
Blackstone is marketing $2B of private fund stakes in the secondary market. What active liquidity management means vs prior BCRED gates.
Research · Jun 6, 2026
Blackstone raised the BCRED $79B fund redemption gate from 7.9% to 10% as withdrawals surge. What it signals for private credit and BREIT parallels.
Research · Jun 3, 2026
Cliffwater 17% and Partners Group 24 hours apart turn the retail private-credit redemption signal from idiosyncratic into systemic.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
The SEC's non-compliance notices to Blackstone and PIMCO signal a regulatory shift in the $1.7T private credit market that the tape hasn't priced into BDC yield spreads. Prospect Capital's $8.9B asset base, 127 portfolio companies, and history of prior SEC actions create 3x the compliance surface area of Main Street Capital's cleaner book. Short PSEC vs long MAIN targets 400bps of yield spread compression over six months as compliance costs surface and potential penalties force a dividend cut.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Blackstone's Q1 beat and 'best year ever' IPO forecast confirm the $197B pipeline is executable, yet Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley trade at the same 12-13x forward multiple as JPMorgan despite deriving 18-22% of revenue from investment banking versus JPM's 7%. Long GS and MS versus JPM over six months targets 8-12% relative return as Q2 and Q3 underwriting revenue surfaces the fee differential.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Federal Reserve's scrutiny of banks' private credit exposure creates a divergence in financial stocks: traditional banks like JPMorgan face regulatory risks while alternative asset managers like Blackstone and Apollo stand to gain market share. This analysis ranks six financial giants based on their exposure and positioning for the coming regulatory changes.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
PE exit volumes slumped amid high rates, AI disruptions, and Iran war volatility, spotlighting managers like Blackstone and Apollo with strong FRE and credit focus over realization-heavy peers. Analysis ranks BX, APO, and BAM as top picks based on FY2025 growth, margins, and guidance. Investors should monitor Q1 realizations and rate cuts.
