Research · Sep 3, 2026
[BCO] Brink's Thesis 2026: Deleveraging Compounding Drives EPS Toward $7-8 by FY2028
Brink's FY2025 showed deleveraging momentum: net leverage declining from 6.7x (FY2022 peak) to ~5.3x as FCF ~$235M reduced net debt to ~$4.0B. DRS (Digital Retail Solutions) growing to ~19,500 locations at $16,900/year adds technology-margin revenue. FY2026 thesis: each ~$400M of debt retired saves ~$20-25M in interest/year, compounding EPS toward $7-8 as leverage approaches 3.5x — the re-rating from trough 8-10x EPS (leverage discount) toward 14-16x (stable industrial services) is the value unlock.