Research · Sep 3, 2026
[BBY] Best Buy Thesis 2026: Consumer Electronics Refresh Cycle Tests Comparable Sales Recovery
Best Buy Co. Inc. FY2025 revenue ~$41-42B (-1 to +2%) with adj. EPS ~$6.20-6.50 reflecting continued post-pandemic consumer electronics demand normalization (FY2022-2024 declining comparable sales from 2020-2021 stay-at-home boom unwind) + selected operational excellence + selected Geek Squad services + selected health/wellness category expansion + selected dealer network growth under continued CEO Corie Barry. Largest US consumer electronics specialty retailer focused on consumer electronics + appliances + Geek Squad services across ~975+ stores + e-commerce platform; founded 1966 by Richard M. Schulze + James Wheeler in St. Paul Minnesota originally as Sound of Music audio specialty retailer (rebranded Best Buy 1983 expanding to broader consumer electronics; IPO 1985 ~$23M raised); headquartered in Richfield Minnesota; ~95,000+ employees; fiscal year ends ~February. ~$41-42B revenue across ~975 US stores + ~155 Canada stores; e-commerce ~33% of revenue (selected post-pandemic e-commerce permanence vs ~22% pre-pandemic FY2020); same-store sales -2 to +1% FY2025 (selected stabilization from -7% FY2024 trough). 2 segments: Domestic (US) 92% ($38B — ~975 US stores; selected ~50 net annual store closures vs ~1,400 peak 2012; selected Geek Squad services + Total Tech support; selected Best Buy Health expansion) + International (Canada) 8% ($3-4B — ~155 Canada stores). Category mix: Computing & Mobile Phones 40-45% + Consumer Electronics (TV + Audio + Headphones) 30-35% + Appliances 10-15% + Entertainment/Services/Other 10-15%. CEO Corie Barry since June 2019 (succeeded Hubert Joly CEO 2012-2019 who led 'Renew Blue' turnaround; Barry ex-Best Buy CFO 2016-2019; ~25-year Best Buy career joined 1999). Capital return: dividend $3.80-3.92/share annual (~22 consecutive year increases; ~5% yield) + buybacks $0.5-1.0B; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating. FY2026 thesis: consumer electronics refresh cycle + comparable sales recovery + services growth + capital return. Risks: consumer discretionary spending, category competition, tariff exposure (~50%+ China sourcing).