ATO
NYSE · Utilities · Regulated Gas · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 4, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $1.20
- Revenue estimate
- $798.7M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Aug 6, 2026
- EPS actual
- $1.43
- EPS estimate
- $1.35
- Revenue actual
- $879.1M
- Revenue estimate
- $900.8M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 8
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 2
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 2
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +4.6%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 8
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Buy
- Price target
- $189
- PT range
- $179 – $200
- Analysts
- 7
Q3 FY2026 · Aug 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
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Customer Growth & Demand
- For the 12 months ending June 30, 2026, Atmos added nearly 51,000 total new customers, 39,000 of which are located in Texas
- 600 new commercial customers added in Q3 FY26, bringing YTD total to over 2,500; 5 new industrial customers added in Q3, bringing YTD total to 12, which are expected to consume 950,000 MCF per year once fully operational (equivalent to 18,000 residential customers)
- Strong economic growth in Texas, which added more jobs than the U.S. average over the past 12 months and gained 3 Fortune 500 companies in 2026, bringing its total to 57 (the highest since 2010)
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Infrastructure Investment & Projects
- Planned full fiscal year capital expenditures total $4.2 billion, with over 87% of investments allocated to enhancing system safety, reliability, and storage capacity across distribution, transmission, and underground storage assets
- APT is advancing multiple expansion projects near the DFW Metroplex, including 29 miles of 36-inch pipeline connecting compressor stations to the Tri-City Storage Facility, a new bilateral compressor station in Carthage Texas to expand Line S2 capacity, and the final 15-mile phase of the WA Loop project completing the 92-mile pipeline loop; all projects are on schedule to enter service by the end of calendar 2026
- APT will file its annual Rider Rev Tariff in August 2026, seeking 160 million to 165 million in revenue credits for LDC customers between November 1 2026 and October 31 2027; if approved, total customer savings from the Rider-Rev mechanism between November 2023 and October 2027 will exceed $300 million
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Customer Service & Community Support
- Customer satisfaction ratings exceeded 97% through the first nine months of fiscal 2026
- The customer advocacy team helped nearly 49,000 customers access approximately $16.2 million in billing assistance in YTD FY26
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Regulatory Progress
- Since the start of FY26, Atmos has implemented $396 million in annualized operating income increases, with $260 million of that implemented in Q3 and Q4 FY26
- Seven rate filings are currently in progress seeking a total of nearly $334 million in annualized operating income increases, with most expected to be implemented in Q1 FY27
Guidance
- Management reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 diluted earnings per share guidance range of $8.40 to $8.50
- Fiscal 2026 O&M spending (excluding bad debt expense) is now guided to a range of $875 million to $885 million, an upward revision from prior guidance to reflect slightly higher ongoing spending
- Full-year fiscal 2026 capital expenditures remain on track to hit approximately $4.2 billion
- Management expects 6% to 8% annual earnings per share growth starting in fiscal 2027, off of the current $8.40 to $8.50 FY26 guidance range
- The firm's existing forward sale agreement net proceeds are expected to cover all remaining FY26 equity needs and a significant portion of projected FY27 equity needs
Segment performance
Atmos Energy operates two core segments: Distribution and APT. Year-to-date fiscal 2026, the Texas House Bill 4384 regulatory benefit recognized totaled $132 million, with $71 million allocated to the Distribution segment and $61 million allocated to the APT segment. Combined rate increases across both segments delivered $227 million in incremental revenue to date. APT's through-system revenues, net of right of rev, increased $34 million (16 cents per diluted share) year-over-year, driven by an average spread of $4.66 in fiscal 2026 YTD compared to $1.77 in the prior year period. Customer growth across residential, commercial, and industrial classes added $41 million in incremental operating income. Consolidated operations & maintenance (O&M) decreased $14 million YTD, with higher safety/compliance spending in Distribution and higher maintenance spending in APT offset by Texas House Bill 4384 deferral impacts. As of quarter end, the firm had $4.6 billion in available liquidity, with 60% equity capitalization and no outstanding short-term debt.
Risks & headwinds
- Forward-looking statements and projections may differ materially from actual results, driven by factors including commodity spread volatility, changes in takeaway capacity timing and availability, weather patterns that impact energy demand, regulatory approval outcomes for rate filings, and macroeconomic conditions affecting customer growth
- APT through-system spread compression has occurred faster than expected following the early completion of new takeaway capacity, creating uncertainty around near-term APT contribution levels relative to prior projections
Analyst Q&A
Q: With one quarter remaining in FY26, will results land at the top of the guidance range? Will there be offsets to strong YTD performance, and how are APT contributions tracking amid current Waha spread levels? / A: Management reaffirmed the $8.40 to $8.50 EPS guidance range. It confirmed that spreads have narrowed significantly since the latter half of Q3, as new takeaway capacity came online earlier than expected. This spread compression will offset strong YTD performance, keeping full-year results within the guided range. Management will monitor spread and operational trends through Q4 to see where results land within the range. For fiscal 2027, O&M is planned to increase 4% annually per the existing five-year plan, which will be refreshed later in the fall.
Q: Prior guidance called for an 8 to 12 cent EPS uptick from APT in the second half of FY26. Is this range still accurate, and does the higher FY26 O&M reflect spending pulled forward from FY27? / A: Management noted that most of the projected uptick was captured in Q3, and with current spread tightening, full H2 results will land at the lower end of the 8 to 12 cent range. The modest increase in O&M spending is not from pulled-forward activity; it reflects normal ongoing growth-related work including line locating, compliance, and maintenance across high-growth areas like the DFW Metroplex, consistent with typical seasonal patterns.
Q: Will the Texas House Bill 4380/Rule 77102 benefit remain a discrete earnings uplift in FY27, and what is the status of the MidTech cities RRM filing and customer affordability positioning? / A: FY26 is the step-change year for the rule's benefit, and going forward into FY27, year-over-year impacts will moderate to historical levels consistent with prior regulatory rules. The projected 6% to 8% FY27+ earnings growth already reflects this moderation. Management confirmed Atmos remains focused on customer affordability, with natural gas bills 2% to 4% lower than electricity for households on an energy-equivalent basis, and natural gas costs only represent 1% to 1.2% of customer wallet share, less than half the share of electric costs.
Q: How will additional takeaway capacity coming online impact APT near-term earning power and utilization after Waha spreads returned to positive territory? / A: Management reaffirmed that full-year FY26 APT contribution will land at the lower end of the prior 8 to 12 cent H2 EPS range. The firm continues to budget APT contributions against its established $107 million benchmark for rider rev planning. Near-term outcomes will depend on unforecastable factors including summer cooling demand, winter heating demand, and takeaway capacity maintenance, so management sticks to its baseline benchmark budgeting process and adjusts based on actual market conditions.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 4, 2026