ARX
NYSE · Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers · KY
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 11, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $0.20
- Revenue estimate
- $268.6M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Aug 13, 2026
- EPS actual
- $0.32
- EPS estimate
- $0.16
- Revenue actual
- $356.9M
- Revenue estimate
- $279.2M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 5
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 0
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 0
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +50.1%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 3
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Hold
- Price target
- $16
- PT range
- $14 – $17
- Analysts
- 5
Q4 FY2025 · Mar 19, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
AI is the architecture of the business. Three structural advantages: proprietary decision-ready data, algorithm-supported underwriting, technologically adaptive decentralized MGAs. Fourth quarter beat expectations on exchange-written premium, third-party premium, and adjusted EBITDA. AI empowers members with faster due diligence, quicker member growth, and lower loss ratios for risk capital partners. Six key metrics (three supply-side, three demand-side) show strong business execution.
Guidance
Q1 2026: Exchange-written premium $1.07 - $1.13 billion, third-party direct written premium $450 - $470 million, adjusted EBITDA $64 - $66 million. Full year 2026: Exchange-written premium at least $5.1 billion, third-party direct written premium at least $2.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA at least $275 million.
Segment performance
Exchange services: Q4 revenue $93 million, +46% y/y; adjusted EBITDA $63 million, margin 67%. MGA Operations: Q4 revenue $59 million (excluding non-recurring gain $57 million), adjusted EBITDA $23 million (excluding gain $21 million), margin 36%. Underwriting segment: Q4 revenue $111 million, adjusted EBITDA $13 million, gross loss ratio 51%.
Risks & headwinds
Actual results may materially differ from forward-looking statements. Information in SEC filings' risk factor section. Industry modernization struggles in connecting and synthesizing data across systems.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Roland Banger asked about 4Q adjusted EBITDA above guidance range.
A: Jay said upside from all segments, exchange services beat on volume and take rate up, MGA ops outperformed, underwriting loss ratio 51 contributed.
Q: About quarterly and annual premium guidance.
A: Ryan said size of Canadian member around 50 million USD per quarter impacts Q1 and Q2.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 11, 2026