Skip to content

ABEV

Ambev S.A.

NYSE · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Alcoholic · BR

$3.02
−0.66%
Ask drillr

Next report

Analyst consensus

Next report date
Oct 29, 2026
EPS estimate
$0.05
Revenue estimate
$4.3B

Latest reported

Last report date
Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.04
EPS estimate
$0.04
Revenue actual
$4.0B
Revenue estimate
$4.1B

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
4
EPS misses (12Q)
1
EPS in line (12Q)
7
Avg surprise (4Q)
+0.0%
Revenue beats (12Q)
4

Analyst ratings

Sell-side consensus

Consensus
Buy
Price target
$20
PT range
$20 – $20
Analysts
2
1 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q2 FY2026 · Jul 30, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

Overall Strategic Framework

Unbev's growth strategy is built on three mutually reinforcing pillars that create a flywheel for sustainable profitable growth:

  • Pillar 1: Lead and grow the category: Strengthen brand equity and market share across core markets, capture share gains in growing segments, and expand high-growth adjacencies. Premium beer is a core growth engine, growing nearly 20% YoY across the footprint; balanced choices grew over 60% YoY, no-alcohol beer grew ~20% YoY, and flavored beer/RTDs maintained strong momentum. Michelob Ultra scaled across markets, growing over 50% YoY footprint-wide and tripling in Brazil and Argentina.
  • Pillar 2: Digitize and monetize the ecosystem: The Bees digital platform acts as an execution powerhouse that improves assortment precision, speeds demand generation, supports customer sell-through, and allocates resources to highest-return opportunities. Bees marketplace GMV grew ~60% YoY in Q2 and H1, with first-half gross margin expanding 6.7 percentage points to 22%; Brazil marketplace GMV doubled in H1, led by third-party sellers. Consumer platform Zé Delivery (Brazil) grew GMV 16% YoY, with premium already representing 35% of beer volumes on the platform, double its offline mix share.
  • Pillar 3: Optimize the business for disciplined capital allocation: Cost optimization creates flexibility to both invest in long-term growth and consistently return excess cash to shareholders. As of Q2, ~95% of the October 2025 208 million share buyback program has been completed (R$3.2 billion disbursed), and a total of R$5.9 billion pre-tax has been returned to shareholders year-to-date via buybacks and interim dividends.

Operational Highlights

  • The 2026 FIFA World Cup was executed as a semester-long, portfolio-wide activation platform across all markets. Unbev's brands were among the most associated with the event, driving incremental industry demand and improving overall brand equity across segments. The event was a major test of end-to-end execution that Unbev passed successfully.
  • In Brazil, industry beer trends improved sequentially: from a high-single-digit decline in H2 2025, to a mid-single-digit decline in Q1 2026, to a slightly positive level for Q2 2026 (after adjusting for partial Nielsen calendar timing). Adverse below-average temperatures offset part of the World Cup's incremental demand impact.
  • Across Unbev's 10 largest markets, beer volumes grew or remained stable in 7 markets, while net revenue and EBITDA grew across all business units, showing broad-based performance not dependent on any single market.
  • The continuous improvement cost PMO initiative (launched in 2025) delivered productivity gains: consolidated cash cost of goods sold per hectolitre (excluding marketplace) increased only 2.2% YoY in Q2.

Guidance

• Full-year guidance for Brazil beer cash COGS per hectolitre (excluding marketplace) is maintained at 4.5% to 7.5% year-over-year increase, unchanged from prior guidance. • Management expects substantially improved underlying performance for the Brazil NAB segment in H2 2026, following the completion of commercial corrections and market share re-alignment to historical levels by the end of Q2. • Management reaffirmed confidence in the long-term fundamental growth of the beer category across Unbev's footprint, supported by favorable demographics (population growth, rising per capita income) and the company's strategy to expand category boundaries through new consumer segments and consumption occasions. • No new changes to long-term margin expansion targets were announced; management reaffirmed the commitment to deliver consistent consolidated margin expansion over time.

Segment performance

Consolidated: Q2 2026 total volumes grew 1.4% YoY (beer volumes up mid-single digits); net revenue grew 6% YoY, normalized EBITDA grew 8.9% to R$6.4 billion, and normalized EPS grew 24.2% YoY. H1 2026 total volumes grew 0.7% YoY, net revenue grew 7% YoY, normalized EBITDA grew 10% YoY, normalized EPS grew 10% YoY, and operating cash flow reached R$7.9 billion (80% improvement YoY).

Brazil Beer: Q2 2026 delivered 5% beer volume growth YoY, 9% net revenue growth YoY, and 13% EBITDA growth YoY with 110 basis points of margin expansion. Premium beer now makes up 25% of Brazil beer volumes, growing mid-20% YoY; balanced choices volumes doubled YoY, and no-alcohol beer grew 30% YoY; mainstream volumes were broadly stable, improving from a mid-single-digit decline in Q1 2026. Unbev gained market share for 4 consecutive quarters, with premium segment share at an all-time high.

Brazil NAB (Non-Alcoholic Beverages): Q2 2026 volumes declined 4.4% YoY (30% of the decline from intentional phase-out of low-return fast food channel volumes). Adjusted for the exit, underlying volume performance improved sequentially from Q1. Market share approached historical levels by quarter-end, and the segment delivered double-digit EBITDA growth YoY with over 300 basis points of margin expansion.

Latin America (ex-Brazil): Bolivia experienced double-digit volume decline in Q2 due to temporary social unrest and logistics disruptions (operations have since normalized). Argentina delivered low-single-digit beer volume growth YoY, with premium growing high single digits, and balanced choices reaching mid-single-digit mix. The Dominican Republic delivered mid-single-digit volume growth YoY, with premium growing over 40% YoY and mainstream growing low single digits.

Canada: The overall domestic beer industry declined low-single-digit YoY, but Unbev gained share in both beer and beyond beer. Unbev delivered low-single-digit top-line growth and low-to-mid-single-digit EBITDA growth with margin expansion in Q2.

Risks & headwinds

• Following Bolivia's ~40% local currency devaluation in late June 2026, gradual negative translation impacts on consolidated financial and operational results are expected in future quarters, despite a one-time positive accounting impact in Q2 from conversion of hard currency reserves. • Elevated household debt levels across key markets (including Brazil) are a noted concerning sign for consumer demand that could pressure consumption trends. • Extreme weather events (including potential El Niño conditions in coming quarters) create uncertainty for consumer demand, agricultural commodity input costs, logistics costs, and operational continuity. • Soft demand recovery in Brazil NAB has taken longer than management initially expected, though the segment is now on a path to improvement. • Forward-looking results depend on future circumstances that may not occur, and actual performance could differ materially from expectations due to general economic, industry, and operating factors.

Analyst Q&A

Q: Nadine Sarwat (Bernstein) asks if the 30% volume decline from the Brazil NAB low-return channel exit will continue as a year-over-year headwind for the rest of 2026, and what the underlying NAB market performance is, plus expectations for H2 2026. / A: Management confirms the fast food channel exit will continue to create a year-over-year headwind for the full year 2026. The broader NAB industry grew in H1 2026, but Unbev focused on correcting price relativity and protecting profitability while recovering market share, which took longer than expected. By end-Q2, market share has returned to near historical levels, and the toughest comparison base has cycled, so management expects substantially improved performance for Brazil NAB in H2.

Q: Tiago Duarte (BTG) asks for more detail on the FIFA World Cup's impact on Brazil beer volumes and net revenue per hectolitre in Q2. / A: Management estimates the World Cup added 0.5 to 1 percentage point of industry volume growth in Q2 Brazil, in line with prior expectations. The event was a six-month cross-portfolio activation that boosted brand equity across all segments. Unbev delivered broad-based market share gains on top of the slight industry growth to hit 5% company volume growth. Net revenue per hectolitre grew ~6% YoY for H1, 50% above inflation, with disciplined pricing that balances profitability and consumer category accessibility, a strategy that will continue.

Q: Carlos Laboy (HSBC) asks for an update on core mainstream brand equity after recent improvements, and whether premium/innovation efforts create a halo effect for mainstream brands. / A: Management states that expanding premium, balanced choices, and innovation enhances the overall image of the entire beer category, creating a clear halo effect across all segments including mainstream. Core mainstream brands performed well in Q2, with broadly stable volumes (a big improvement from Q1) and all three core mainstream brands gained share, including Skoll which recorded its first equity improvement after several quarters of stable performance. Complementary regional positioning of multiple core mainstream brands is a key competitive advantage in Brazil.

Q: Ben Thur (Barclays) asks for expectations for Brazil beer volume in H2 2026, and the potential impact of El Niño. / A: Management does not provide formal industry guidance, but notes that the toughest year-over-year volume comparisons have now cycled, and current forecasts do not expect more adverse average temperatures than 2025. Elevated household debt remains a concern. Key learnings from the 2024 El Niño event are being applied: teams are preparing to protect employees, support affected communities, and mitigate potential input cost volatility from agricultural and logistics disruptions, while maintaining flexibility for any climate scenario.

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Oct 29, 2026