Waste Connections, Inc. Q4 FY2024 earnings call

• 2024 was an extraordinary year with double-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, low employee turnover (down over 1,000 basis points from 2022), and successful acquisitions totaling ~$750M in annualized revenue. • Closed Chiquita Canyon landfill at year-end 2024 due to tonnage limits and capital requirements, redirecting waste throughput to other landfills. • Focus on human capital led to improved operational execution, and initiatives like electric trucks, PFAS treatment solutions, and digitalization of employee and customer experience. • 2024 adjusted free cash flow was $1.218 billion, with over $1.4 billion in the base business excluding Chiquita.

In Q4, solid waste core pricing was 6.7%, and for full year 2024, adjusted EBITDA was $2.902 billion, up 15% year-over-year with a margin of 32.5%. In 2024, the company closed approximately $750 million in annualized revenue from 24 acquisitions, and had a pipeline with over $75 million in annualized revenue either closed or signed and expected to close during Q2.

• 2025 revenue estimated in the range of $9.45 billion to $9.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $3.12 billion to $3.2 billion (margin 33% to 33.3%), adjusted free cash flow in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion. • Q1 2025 revenue estimated in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.225 billion, adjusted EBITDA estimated at $700 million to $710 million.

• Commodity and FX volatility which can impact margins. • Regulatory changes affecting operations, such as tonnage limits and permit requirements. • Site-specific impacts like the Chiquita Canyon landfill closure and associated ETLF event.

Q: Tyler Brown asked about green CapEx and EBITDA contribution from RNG.

A: Mary Anne Whitney responded that green CapEx spending will be mostly done by 2026, with benefits from incremental tax credits unknown, and RNG facilities will ramp up in 2026.

Q: Kevin Chiang inquired about M&A and employee retention in acquired businesses.

A: Ron Mittelstaedt stated that acquired businesses often have higher turnover initially, but Waste Connections has improved safety and retention, dropping safety incident rates in acquired companies.

Q: Toni Kaplan asked about price trajectory.

A: Mary Anne Whitney said core price is expected to be around 6%, with CPI-linked markets stepping down and competitive markets contributing higher, and pricing retention remains strong.

Q: Bryan Burgmeier asked about RNG contribution and ITC benefits.

A: Mary Anne Whitney said RNG contribution was ~$100 million in 2024 and will continue similarly, and they expect to qualify for ITC benefits but communicate outlays excluding potential benefits.

Q: Jerry Revich asked about rail shipments and M&A in the Northeast.

A: Ron Mittelstaedt mentioned rail shipments from the Arrowhead transaction are performing better than expected, and there is significant M&A opportunity in the Northeast with the rail network providing optionality.