Tesla, Inc. Q4 FY2024 earnings call

• Q4 saw record vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments despite a macro environment.
• Model Y was the best-selling vehicle globally, not just electric.
• Focus on autonomy and humanoid robots, with substantial investments in AI and robotics.
• Automotive inventory was reduced by offering financing and discounts, ending Q4 with lowest finished good inventory in two years.
• Started taking orders for the new Model Y, with factories to transition production next month.
• Energy storage deployments grew, with Megafactory Shanghai coming online and plans for a third factory.

In Q4, Tesla set records in vehicle deliveries with an annualized rate near 2 million. Model Y was the best-selling vehicle globally. For energy storage, deployments reached an all-time high in Q4, with growth from Megapack and Powerwall. Automotive revenue contributed significantly, and energy storage deployments were a key segment with supply constraints.

• Unsupervised Full Self Driving (FSD) is planned to be launched in Austin in June, with confidence in expanding to other US cities by year-end.
• Optimus robot ramp plans, aiming for several thousand units this year with production Version 2 launching next year.
• 2025 is a pivotal year for Tesla, with FSD and Optimus being key drivers.
• CapEx expected to be flat in 2025 as focus is on targeted AI-related investments.

• Tariffs pose a risk to profitability due to reliance on global supply chains.
• Regulatory challenges, especially in Europe and China, could delay FSD rollout.
• Competition in real-world AI development is a risk as Tesla aims to lead in this space.

Q: Is unsupervised FSD still planned to be released in Texas and California this year? What hurdles still exist?

A: Elon Musk is confident in releasing unsupervised FSD in California this year, with only excess caution as the main hurdle.

Q: Are there any discussions with other auto companies about licensing FSD?

A: Significant interest from major car companies, but high volume licensing will be considered only after unsupervised FSD works in the US.

Q: Is Optimus now mostly design locked for 2025 production?

A: Optimus is not design locked; it's rapidly evolving.

Q: When will Tesla start selling Optimus, and what will the price be?

A: Tesla expects to use Optimus in factories this year, with production Version 2 launching next year, and price market-driven.

Q: Status on mass production of Tesla Semi?

A: First builds of high volume Semi design late 2025, ramping early 2026, with TCO beneficial.

Q: Expected to upgrade Hardware 3 vehicles?

A: Tesla will need to upgrade Hardware 3 vehicles, with software releases continuing for Hardware 3.

Q: Has Tesla given up on ramping solar roof product?

A: No, Tesla uses certified installers, with solar roof remaining a core residential product.

Q: Technical breakthroughs in V14 of FSD?

A: Scaling model size, context length, adding audio, and using fleet data are key breakthroughs.

Q: Views on LiDAR for AVs?

A: Elon Musk still believes passive visual with cameras and AI is the solution, not LiDAR.

Q: Policy on sustainable transport in US?

A: Sustainable transport is inevitable, with electric autonomous transport set to happen.

Q: Relationship between FSD efforts and vehicle volume growth?

A: Battery production is the current constraint, with focus on increasing gigawatt hours.