Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Record Q3 results: Achieved 27,000 GEOs, record adjusted EBITDA of $79 million, and record operating cash flow per share of USD 0.39. • Capital deployment: Year-to-date, over $350 million of capital deployed over 5 investments, including acquisitions of Tres Quebradas lithium mine, Arcata silver mine, Johnson Camp copper mine royalty, Arthur project royalty, and Minera Florida gold mine royalty. • Financials: Exited Q3 with 0 net debt, in a net cash position, total liquidity available nearly $1 billion, and declared a quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.0575 per share. • Minera Florida: Acquired a package of royalties, with the mine having a long history of consistent performance, continuous operation, and reserve replacement, expecting GEOs to increase to ~1,000 ounces by 2028.

In the third quarter, Triple Flag recorded 27,000 GEOs, driving adjusted EBITDA of $79 million and operating cash flow per share of USD 0.39. Northparkes and Cerro Lindo were the two largest revenue contributors. The sales mix is 100% derived from precious metals, with nearly 3/4 from gold. Revenue contribution is heavily weighted towards these key segments.

• Expect 2025 GEOs between the midpoint and high end of the 2025 guidance range. • 2029 GEOs outlook is 135,000 to 145,000 ounces, driven by assets ramping up (Arcata ramping in 2026, Koné targeting 2027 production), and increased volumes from operating mines. • Arcata silver mine started shipping concentrate this week and will ramp up in 2026.

• International arbitration with Step Gold started in early October, with ongoing discussions but confident in legal position. • Minera Florida had issues like negative grade reconciliation and unplanned mine sequencing into lower-grade ore zones, but long-term performance expected to align with historical range. • Regulatory approvals needed for Prieska project's development phases.

Q: Just on the deal pipeline, maybe talk a little bit more about how the Minera Florida transaction was sourced. Was this -- I mean, it was a third-party royalty from a family. Just curious if there was any sort of process? Or was this a relationship that was like preexisting?

A: Yes, it was a fairly concentrated process. We developed a report with the family over negotiating the deal, and had a site visit, accessing Pan American Silver and the mine sales team.

Q: Just on the ATO stream, it looks like there was an international arbitration that was started in early October. Can you maybe just give us an update on how the discussions are going with Step Gold? And what's Triple Flag's expectation for a potential resolution?

A: We're extremely confident in our legal position, owed about USD 10 million, in dialogue with Steppe's controlling shareholder, and will land in the top half of our guidance range even if no ounces received from Steppe Gold by year end.

Q: I just wondered if you can comment a little bit on Prieska and what's going on there. I mean there's a statement Orion looks like they've signed a term sheet with Glencore. But what actually needs to happen there for you to move that forward post -- other than the South African regulatory approvals?

A: Prieska is contemplated as a single integrated project. Orion has a nonbinding letter of intent from Glencore. We will evaluate the right but not obligation to fund the stream into the Deeps when they make a final investment decision, with the upper expected to be decided this year and Deeps next year.

Q: On the El Mochito stream disposal, you got a fair amount of consideration to perhaps a win-win situation for both parties. But could you discuss how the situation arose and how you evaluate these types of situations versus retaining optionality in the portfolio?

A: El Mochito was undercapitalized, we found outside capital to help them, it's a win-win where we get good value and they move forward without the stream in place, evaluated on an asset-by-asset basis.

Q: Maybe my first question is on Minera Florida. James, you mentioned that you were on site. My understanding is that this past quarter or this past year, there's been some issues in terms of negative grade reconciliation, unplanned mine sequencing into lower-grade ore zones. I think you mentioned that as much as well in your guidance. You said, I think Minera Florida long term was capable of doing 75,000 to 100,000 ounces. This past year, 78,000 to 90,000. So the top end is lower. So I guess my question is, James, how much of that have you factored in into your valuation? And is it just really a one-off and it's really going to bounce back? Or how do you look at it?

A: The valuation considers short-term variance as a guide for long-term, but the mine has a long history of operations and we expect it to operate in the historical range.

Q: Maybe switching gears a little bit, bigger picture. Sheldon, as you mentioned, you reiterated in your release as well, 2029 guidance outlook. Outlook is you're still looking for 135,000 to 145,000 ounces GEOs. That's a very good increase from what level you're at today. Could you maybe summarize for us what goes into that thinking? What needs to come on for you to hit that growth into 2029?

A: We've got assets ramping up like Arcata (shipped concentrate this week, ramping in 2026), Johnson Camp ramping up, Koné targeting 2027 production, increased volumes from operating mines like Northparkes, [indiscernible], Beta Hunt, with Westgold's expansion to Beta Hunt 2 million tonnes per annum on track, diversified across well-positioned assets.

Q: The 2025 GEOs. The gold/silver ratio you've used is 85:1 in terms of the calculation of GEOs converting silver into gold. I just want to confirm, silver has actually outperformed a little bit compared to gold into 2025. That benefits Triple Flag. Am I correct in the sense that I think there's a good percentage of your revenue actually coming from silver. That's number one. Number two, it also benefits your GEO calculation, if I'm not mistaken, if you can confirm that as well. And then third, when do you consider, I guess, changing that ratio? Or I guess, it's not too late in 2025, it's not needed in 2025, but how do you consider that into 2026?

A: 85:1 is close to current levels, silver price strength helps GEOs and revenue, we're conservative in setting guidance, and will assess the ratio when setting 2026 guidance based on current conditions