Ryanair Holdings Plc Q3 FY2025 earnings call

Key Points

• Traffic grew 9% to 45 million in Q3 despite Boeing aircraft delivery delays.
• Revenue per passenger, average fares, and ancillary revenue each rose 1%.
• Over 60% of the EUR800 million share buyback was complete by end of December.
• Revised FY 2026 traffic target to 206 million (3% growth) due to Boeing delays, with hope to recover delayed traffic using remaining 29 Gamechangers by March 2026.
• Ownership and control review ongoing, with EU shareholding expected to reach 50% threshold in first half of 2025.
• Reallocated scarce capacity growth to regions/airports in Poland, Spain, Sweden, and regional Italy where aviation taxes are reduced or abolished.

In Q3, Ryanair reported traffic growth of 9% to 45 million passengers. Revenue per passenger rose 1%, with Q3 average fares up 1% and ancillary revenue up 1% to EUR1.04 billion. Operating costs rose 8% to EUR2.93 billion despite 9% traffic growth, with fuel hedge savings offsetting higher staff and other costs. Gross cash was EUR2.77 billion as of 31 December, resulting in a modest net cash balance of just over EUR70 million.

Forward-Looking Statements

• FY 2026 traffic expected to be 206 million (3% growth) due to Boeing delays, with hope to recover delayed traffic in summer 2026 using remaining Gamechangers.
• Full-year 2025 traffic expected near 200 million, with unit costs broadly flat.
• Cautioned on adverse external developments like further Boeing delivery delays, conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East, and ATC mismanagement in Europe.
• Expect fuel hedge savings to offset some costs, but mindful of ex-fuel cost inflation from crew pay, productivity, and route charges.

Risks Identified

• Boeing aircraft delivery delays continuing to impact traffic growth and operational plans.
• Conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East posing short-term impacts on business.
• ATC mismanagement in Europe, including short staffing affecting departures.

Q: Talk again about summer growth and supply chain.

A: Summer 2025 capacity constrained; reallocating scarce capacity to regions with reduced taxes. Boeing delivery delays discussed, with plans to insource engine maintenance shops.

Q: On OTA update and FY 2026 outlook.

A: Agreements with over 90% of major OTAs, seeing strong forward bookings; FY 2026 traffic affected by Boeing delays, expecting 3% growth to 206 million then recovering.