Northwestern Energy Group Inc Q2 FY2026 earnings call

• Merger with Black Hills Corporation

  • Received required regulatory approvals from the Nebraska PSC, South Dakota PUC, and FERC during Q2 2026, and secured overwhelming shareholder approval in the quarter
  • The Montana Public Service Commission (MPSC) hearings are completed, final briefing is done, and a final decision is expected between mid-October and mid-November 2026 (90 to 120 days after the mid-July 2026 briefing)
  • Extensive integration planning with Black Hills is complete, and the company is fully prepared to close and begin operations once MPSC approval is received
  • All merger-related cost savings will ultimately be passed through to customers in future rate reviews; the combined company is expected to deliver 5% to 7% annual EPS growth

• Dividend Update

  • The company declared a 67 cent per share dividend, payable September 1, 2026 with an August 17, 2026 record date. The date adjustment aligns Northwestern's dividend schedule with Black Hills' to simplify merger closing mechanics

• Data Center and Large Load Development

  • The company remains actively engaged with potential data center customers primarily focused on Montana and South Dakota, and continues to work toward executing Energy Sales Agreements (ESAs)
  • Management still expects to finalize ESAs with two of three current development agreement counterparties (Quantica and Atlas) by the end of 2026; the third counterparty, SABE, is still completing land procurement, so an ESA with SABE by year-end is not currently expected
  • A large new load tariff was submitted to regulators in March 2026 to protect existing customers, and will be paired with future ESAs for regulatory approval
  • South Dakota has an established large load tariff and infrastructure rider for generation cost recovery, but the company is working to resolve a pending sales tax issue on equipment purchases through the upcoming state legislative session

• Capital Plan

  • The 5-year capital plan of $3.2 billion from 2026 through 2030 remains unchanged and on track, focused on essential investments to meet customer needs

• Standalone Value Proposition

  • As a standalone company, Northwestern offers a ~4% dividend yield, target 4% to 6% annual EPS growth, and expected 8% to 10% total annual returns
  • If the company successfully executes its pipeline of data center, large load, regional transmission, and new generation capacity opportunities, EPS growth could exceed the 6% upper target, leading to total annual returns greater than 10%

Northwestern Energy did not provide a breakdown of financial performance by product or geographic segment in this earnings call. No segment-level absolute financial results or revenue contribution percentages were disclosed. Aggregate results for the full company are as follows: Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS was 40 cents, and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was 50 cents, a 10 cent increase from adjusted EPS in Q2 2025. Year-to-date 2026 GAAP earnings per share were $1.43, compared to $1.60 in the prior year period; adjusted year-to-date EPS was $1.81, compared to $1.62 in the prior year. Key drivers of Q2 performance included a 38 cent margin improvement over the prior year driven by new Montana base rates, incremental sales from Puget Coal Strip ownership, and growing transmission revenues. These improvements were offset by higher operating costs, depreciation, and interest expense. Q2 2026 had a minor 1 cent unfavorable weather impact compared to normal, after a significant unseasonable warm weather impact in Q1 2026 that reduced year-to-date results.

• Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance range of $3.68 to $3.83, matching prior guidance with no upward or downward revision • The company's long-term target for standalone rate-based and EPS growth remains 4% to 6%, unchanged from prior outlooks • The $3.2 billion 2026-2030 capital expenditure plan is maintained with no changes to the total budget or timeline • Management reaffirmed its expectation for 5% to 7% annual EPS growth for the combined company if the merger with Black Hills is completed

• The merger with Black Hills Corporation remains pending final approval from the Montana Public Service Commission, and the timing and outcome of the final decision is uncertain, despite management's cautious optimism • The PCAM tariff waiver for incremental Puget Coal Strip O&M cost recovery is only interim, and current recovery is insufficient to cover all operating costs for the acquired Avista share of the coal strip asset • Data center development projects carry execution risk: management has noted no guarantee that all expected ESAs will be completed by year-end, and developers may withdraw from the process after learning full project cost details • The data center industry faces growing public and community pushback over energy and water use concerns, which could delay or block project development in Northwestern's service territory • South Dakota's unresolved sales tax issue on large load customer equipment purchases could discourage new large load development in the state until legislative action is taken • Transmission capacity in Northwestern's system is projected to decline by 2028, and new transmission projects needed to support growing large load demand remain contingent on permitting and regulatory approvals • A departing MPSC commissioner is challenging his removal in state court, which creates minor uncertainty around the timing of the merger approval decision, though management does not expect a meaningful delay

Q: What is the probability of Quantica developing its full 7.2 gigawatt request, and what are the key physical considerations for this full build?

A: Northwestern is focused on the 1.1 gigawatt phase one project with Quantica in the near term, and success at the lower phase one level is required before moving to larger scale expansion. The company defers to Quantica to discuss their own long-term development plans for larger capacity.

Q: The current PCAM tariff waiver is insufficient to recover all O&M costs for the acquired Avista coal strip share; what is the company's action plan and timeline for improving cost recovery for this asset?

A: The MPSC has signaled general support for the coal strip asset and its role in keeping costs low for Montana customers. The interim tariff waiver docket is expected to conclude in Q4 2026 or early 2027, and the company will eventually add the asset to base rates via a full rate review, with timing of that filing pending the MPSC's order on the 2024 rate review motion for reconsideration.

Q: Available import transmission capacity is declining through 2028 even without the large data center pipeline; is the 300 megawatt North Plains Connector (in which Northwestern holds a 10% stake) sufficient, or is a larger transmission project needed?

A: Multiple new transmission projects, including the North Plains Connector and the Montana-to-Idaho line, are needed to support expected load growth in Montana and the Pacific Northwest. Northwestern is positioned to continue investing in required transmission expansion to support new large load development.

Q: Does the departure of a MPSC commissioner change the 90 to 120 day timeline for the merger decision?

A: The existing 90 to 120 day timeline still holds, as the commission maintains a quorum to vote on the merger decision regardless of the commissioner's departure, and no delays are expected from this personnel change.