Novo Nordisk A/S Q3 FY2024 earnings call

Purpose and Sustainability

• Serves over 43 million patients with diabetes and obesity treatments, an increase of almost 3 million vs 12 months ago.
• Carbon emissions up 34% due to capital expenditure for meeting demand.
• Women in senior leadership positions increased to 41%, 47% across all leadership positions.

R&D Highlights

• Phase 3 results from SOUL, STRIDE, ESSENCE for semaglutide; ESSENCE trial showed semaglutide improved liver histology in MASH.
• SOUL trial showed oral semaglutide reduced major adverse cardiovascular events.
• Ongoing R&D projects in diabetes, obesity, rare diseases including Phase 1/2 trials and initiations.

Commercial Execution

• North America sales grew 31%, International 15%.
• Diabetes Care global market share 33.9%.
• International diabetes care sales up 10% with GLP-1 diabetes sales up 16%.
• Wegovy sales up 77% globally, 50% in North America operations.

In the first nine months of 2024, Novo Nordisk delivered 24% sales growth and 22% operating profit growth. For product segments:

• Diabetes Care: Sales grew 21%, with global diabetes value market share increasing to 33.9% (above the 2025 strategic aspiration of one-third).
• Obesity Care: Sales increased 44%, with Wegovy sales growing 77% globally, 50% in North America operations.
• Rare Diseases: Sales increased 3%, with North America operations up 21% and International operations down 9%.
• GLP-1 Treatments: Patient reach tripled over three years, now serving around 11.5 million patients globally, supplying almost two-thirds of GLP-1 patients.

Novo Nordisk narrowed its sales growth guidance to between 23% and 27% at constant exchange rates. Operating profit growth is expected to be between 21% and 27% at constant exchange rates. Capital expenditure is expected to be around DKK 45 billion in 2024. Free cash flow is now expected to be between DKK 57 billion and DKK 65 billion.

• Supply constraints and drug shortages due to high demand and capacity limitations.
• Regulatory risks related to pending court rulings on 340B program in the U.S.
• Competition and potential impact of compounded products.

Q: On CagriSema, details on modeling for 25% weight loss.

A: Martin Holst Lange explains modeling based on Phases 1-2 data and experience.

Q: On Catalent transaction and 2025 growth.

A: Karsten Munk Knudsen talks about Catalent closing by year-end and 2025 growth based on absolute growth and base.

Q: On ESSENCE filing strategy and monlunabant.

A: Martin Holst Lange and Camilla Sylvest discuss regulatory filing and monlunabant's safety and efficacy.

Q: On marketing costs, compounding, and supply.

A: Doug Langa and Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen discuss marketing investments and supply improving with reduced compounding.

Q: On ex-U.S. supply, amylin 355.

A: Karsten Munk Knudsen and Martin Holst Lange talk about supply acceleration and amylin's pipeline.

Q: On CagriSema tolerability, midterm guidance.

A: Martin Holst Lange on tolerability and Karsten on midterm guidance in late 2025/early 2026.

Q: On 2025 growth commentary, once monthly semaglutide.

A: Karsten on 2025 growth and Martin on once monthly semaglutide's early stage.

Q: On rebate adjustments, Wegovy stocking.

A: Karsten on rebate adjustments being neutral and Wegovy stocking as one-off in IO.

Q: On CagriSema supply chain, Catalent Plan B.

A: Karsten on external sourcing for CagriSema and Plan B for Catalent.