National Grid plc Q2 FY2026 earnings call

• Supply Chain Progress: Secured supply chain for ASTI projects, with Wave 1 projects under construction and Wave 2 progressing. Over 3/4 of GBP 60 billion investment plan underpinned by delivery mechanisms.
• Regulatory and Policy Momentum: Strong regulatory support in U.S. and U.K. In U.K., working on connections reform and engaging with Ofgem on RIIO-T3. In U.S., progress on NESE pipeline and draft energy plan.
• U.K. Load Growth Support: Working with government and industry on AI infrastructure, facilitating data center connections.
• Reliability and Safety: Strong reliability in U.K. and U.S. networks. Safety focus with lost time injury frequency rate 0.09, inside group target.

U.K. Electricity Distribution

• Underlying operating profit was GBP 551 million, down GBP 22 million vs prior year, reflecting lower revenues due to Ofgem's real price effects mechanism offset by some benefits. Capital investment was GBP 756 million, up from prior period, driven by higher asset replacement, refurbishment, and load-related reinforcement. Over GBP 100 million of synergy savings achieved 6 months ahead of target.

U.K. Electricity Transmission

• Underlying operating profit was GBP 846 million, up GBP 122 million vs prior period, driven by higher allowed revenues. Capital investment was GBP 1.7 billion, 31% higher, including construction of new substations and progress on London Power Tunnels project.

U.S. (New York)

• Underlying operating profit was GBP 443 million, GBP 167 million higher vs prior year, due to higher net revenue from network upgrade and recovery of unremunerated costs. Capital investment was GBP 1.6 billion, GBP 82 million higher, from mains replacement and smart meter spend.

U.S. (New England)

• Underlying operating profit was GBP 292 million, GBP 65 million higher vs prior period, from higher revenues and improved incentive performance. Capital investment was GBP 958 million, GBP 178 million higher, from asset condition, system capacity, and smart meter installations.

National Grid Ventures

• Underlying contribution was GBP 227 million, including joint ventures. Capital investment was GBP 69 million, driven by asset refurbishment. Operating loss of GBP 27 million, 11 million lower vs prior period.

• Expect a modestly higher underlying EPS relative to May guidance, with improved operating performance in regulated businesses and slightly lower financing costs offsetting weaker U.S. dollar and slightly higher share count from scrip uptake.
• Full year net debt expected to increase by around GBP 1 billion from the half year, including Grain sale proceeds and assuming a USD 1.35 exchange rate.

• Regulatory Uncertainty: Uncertainty around the final determination of RIIO-T3 framework and its impact on investment returns and ability to deliver projects at scale and pace.
• Supply Chain and Construction Risks: Potential delays or issues in the supply chain for major projects could impact capital delivery and investment timelines.
• Affordability Concerns: Pressure on affordability in both U.K. and U.S. could affect regulatory decisions and customer acceptance of investment plans.

Q: On T3 expectations, color on dialogue with Ofgem and return on equity pressure?

A: Dialogue focused on investable framework and workability of regulatory framework. Argued for higher base return comparable internationally. Still ongoing dialogue in those broad categories.

Q: On net debt guidance, color on drivers and persistence?

A: Net difference due to slightly higher script uptake and working capital, relatively small in context of balance sheet and not seen as significant enduring shift.

Q: On U.K. Electricity Distribution operational RoRE, color on tracking and pathway to 100 basis points?

A: On track to 50 basis points guide this year, on track to get closer to 100 basis points by end of ED. Sector-specific methodology consultation aligns with expectations.

Q: On U.S. transmission opportunities, relevance and materiality?

A: Looking at opportunities like ISO-led one in New England, in early stages, will only proceed if can win with sensible returns.

Q: On hybrids, status?

A: Hybrids remain a useful tool, but no near-term issuance planned as per financing strategy.