Green Plains Inc.
Green Plains Inc. Q3 FY2024 earnings call
October 31, 2024 · fiscal period ended 2024-09
EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2024-10-31
Management highlights
- Jim Stark retired from Green Plains and Phil Boggs was promoted to Chief Financial Officer, with a seamless transition. - Third quarter EBITDA was $83.3 million, including $30.7 million gain from asset sale. Normal operations EBITDA was $53 million. Standalone consolidated crush margin was $58 million. - Ethanol operating rate near 97%, record ultra-high protein production, strong corn oil yields. - Clean Sugar's CST project in Shenandoah had startup and commissioning, began supplying product to customers, with first bulk commercial sales expected in Q4. - Completed sale of Birmingham Unit Train Terminal, proceeds used to retire high-priced debt. Board continuing strategic review process. - Carbon project Trailblazer making progress, equipment ordered for Q2 2025 delivery, expected to start construction soon. - Protein segment had record ultra-high protein production, Tharaldson JV ramping up, opening new markets.
Segment performance
Green Plains consolidated revenues for the third quarter were $658.7 million, a 26% decrease from the same period last year. EBITDA was $83.3 million, including a $30.7 million gain from the sale of the Birmingham Unit Train Terminal. Ethanol operating rate reached nearly 97%, with record ultra-high protein production and strong corn oil yields. Protein segment had record ultra-high protein production in Q3, with Tharaldson JV ramping up production. Carbon project: Trailblazer project in Wyoming got first sequestration well approved in September, expected to generate ~$130 million per year from second half of 2025. Corn oil saw price stabilization with market tightening, expected to be an advantaged feedstock in 2025.
Guidance
- Carbon project expected to generate ~$130 million per year from second half of 2025. - Clean Sugar's CST project to execute first bulk commercial sales in Q4, production to ramp up over coming year. - Corn oil and carbon combined expected to contribute over $220 million in EBITDA from second half of 2025. - Ethanol exports on pace for record year of 1.8 - 1.9 billion gallons in 2024, led by Canada.
Risks
- Market price volatility risk: fluctuations in ethanol, corn, natural gas prices affecting margins. - Project execution risk: potential delays or issues in Clean Sugar project startup and commercialization. - Policy change risk: changes in tax credit policies affecting carbon project revenues. - Protein market competition risk: impact of low - cost competing products on margins.
Q&A highlights
Q: What's the feedback from customers on Clean Sugar and its geographic distribution?
A: Customer feedback has been good. Currently, most customers are North American. There are global demands for the technology, and they are working on food - grade certification.
Q: What's the outlook for ethanol exports next year?
A: Global demand remains robust, expected to continue growing, especially in Canada and European markets.
Q: What are the key milestones to track for the carbon project to hit the second - half 2025 $70 a credit target?
A: Equipment order is on - track, expected Q2 2025 delivery. Plan to break ground in next few weeks. Watch for 45Z rule roll - out early next year, Class 6 wells in Wyoming, and Trailblazer's lateral construction.
Q: What's the outlook for the protein market?
A: Strong demand, but affected by soybean meal competition. Expected market to absorb protein over next 18 months, 60% protein products and others to increase margin contribution.
Q: What's the progress on the Blue Blade energy project?
A: Decided not to proceed with current catalyst, focusing on low - carbon fuels and ingredients supply with existing technologies.
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.35 | $0.11 | +218.2% | $0.35 |
| Revenue | $658.7M | $661.9M | -0.5% | $892.8M |
Transcript
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