EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2026-04-24
Management highlights
• Amid energy system volatility, ATENI focuses on financial performance and strategic milestones. • 2026 has positive strategic advancement, Q1 with strong financials: 3.5 billion euro of pro forma EBIT, cash flow from operation of 2.9 billion euro, pro forma gearing at 15%. • Major strategic events: exceptional exploration start, FID of Gangnorth and Gahem in Indonesia, production growth, first LNG export from second Congo LNG, transition sector progress. • Exploration: significant discoveries in Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, Egypt, Indonesia. • Downstream and biorefineries under traditional maintenance. • Versailles reported progress in curtailing losses.
Segment performance
EMP delivered 9% year-on-year production growth. GGP pro forma EBIT of €0.3 billion. Transition businesses: pro forma EBITDA of €0.52 billion. Plenitude will increase gross EBITDA by 20% to €1.3 billion. Enilive will reach an EBITDA of €1.1 billion, 16% over last year. Refinery utilization low due to major turnaround. Contribution from associate reflected macro scenario. Cash flow from operation generated in line with expectation. Capes was €1.9 billion, in line with full-year amount of €7 billion.
Guidance
• Confirmed outlook for EMP production with 3 or 4% growth. • Updated market scenario projection: Brent to $83 per barrel from $70, TTF to €50 for MWh from $36, refining margin in Europe, CERM, to $8 per barrel from $6. • Estimated cash flow from operation pre-working capital of €13.8 billion, up 20% from €11.5 billion. • Share buyback raised by around 90% to €2.8 billion. • New distribution policy to be put to shareholder for approval at AGM on 6th May.
Q&A highlights
Q: How should we think about the £55 million transformation cost this quarter and full year?
A: Around 50 million of efficiency to be brought, not to multiply 55 by four.
Q: On Indonesia, cash adjustment on deal closing?
A: Expect cash settlement, but amount is irrelevant.
Q: Situation in Middle East and impact on portfolio?
A: Marginal impact on oil production and free cash flow, limited exposure.
Q: Indonesia production target after discoveries?
A: Will raise production target to more than 500, maybe 700-750.
Q: Buyback timing and confidence?
A: Decided to move buyback as market trend changed.
Q: Gas price assumption above forward curve?
A: Believes higher prices needed for refilling storage, price signals not supported.
Q: CAPEX and exploration discoveries?
A: Some discoveries near infrastructure with low CAPEX, others in business combinations.
Q: GGP guidance increase?
A: Based on Q1 results, volume increase and asset-backed trading.
Q: Net debt in Plenitude?
A: 2.6 billion net debt to be deconsolidated.
Q: Biofuels affordability?
A: Biofuel has solution in scarcity, premium reflects scarcity, potential larger market to improve cost.
Q: Libya deepwater well results?
A: Non-commercial discovery but better understanding of basin.
Q: Jet fuel inventory and refiners?
A: Prepared to satisfy customer commitments.
Q: E&I Live margins and guidance?
A: Scenario improved, EBITDA performance adjusted, Venice under maintenance.
Q: Working capital expected to come down?
A: Will improve immediately in next quarter.
Q: Venezuela situation?
A: Signed Cardon for Sustainability Agreement, new license and hydrocarbon law, engaging authorities.
Q: Demand destruction?
A: Too early to say, no real material demand destruction.
Q: Argentina LNG FID?
A: Still projecting FID by year-end, engineering work almost completed.
Q: Price lagging impact on cash flow?
A: Various elements determine different distribution in next quarters.
Q: Discovery in Indonesia and agreement terms?
A: Mechanisms in agreement to readjust value.
Q: Exploration wells in 2026?
A: Plan to drill more wells in Indonesia, Egypt, Ghana.
Q: Chemicals result improvement?
A: Transformation has positive impact, second quarter expected better.
Q: Honoring customer commitments and margin squeeze?
A: In our chain of supply, not relying too much on cargo market.
Q: Exploration blocks with BP in Namibia?
A: Initiative of BP, not part of Azul energy activity.
Q: ADNOC refining dividends?
A: No change in assumption, not material.
Q: Divestment proceeds and trading plans?
A: Expect fourth disposal completed, trading plans in third stage.
Q: Venezuela receivables recovery?
A: Mechanisms to recover past use within oil development framework
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.81 | $1.13 | -28.1% | $0.92 |
| Revenue | $23.11B | $24.79B | -6.8% | $24.74B |
Transcript
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