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CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC Q3 FY2024 earnings call

October 31, 2024 · fiscal period ended 2024-09

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Summary

Generated 2024-10-31

Management highlights

• Completed 6th acquisition of the year, closing Royal on October 1. • Revenue topped $400 million, adjusted EBITDA over $100 million for the first time. • Landfill average price per ton up over 7% Y/Y; received Maine support for Jupiter Ridge Landfill expansion. • Collection adjusted EBITDA margins up 130 basis points Y/Y same-store. • Resource Solutions revenues up 14.5% Y/Y with recycling and national accounts growth. • Published 2024 Sustainability Report. • McKean, Pennsylvania landfill rail-served project complete; Willimantic MRF upgrade expected to be done by Q1 2025. • M&A pipeline active with ~$600M of revenues in various stages of diligence.

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Segment performance

Landfills: Volumes down Y/Y with C&D tons driving most of the decline, special waste marginally down, MSW mostly flat. Average price per ton up over 7% Y/Y. Collection: Adjusted EBITDA margins up 130 basis points Y/Y on same-store basis due to strategic investments in frontline operations. Resource Solutions: Revenues up 14.5% Y/Y, adjusted EBITDA growth and margins strong with same-store margins up 90 basis points Y/Y. MRF results benefited from higher commodity prices and equipment upgrades, national accounts business strong.

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Guidance

• 2024 guidance reaffirmed; 2025 expected growth in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow in range of 12%-15%. • ~$125M rollover acquisition revenue from recent acquisitions (Royal, Whitetail, LMR). • Base business tailwinds from solid waste pricing (~5% increase), improved landfill volumes, Willimantic MRF retrofit completion, and operating programs/acquisition synergies driving margin improvement.

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Risks

• Insurance events in Q3 impacted margins by 80 basis points. • C&D market pressure weighing on landfill volumes. • Unexpected closure charge at Southbridge Landfill due to revised post-closure costs. • Potential impact of election on M&A behavior and bonus depreciation stepping down affecting M&A.

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Q&A highlights

Q: Trevor Romeo asked about progress on landfill development and the Royal acquisition.

A: John Casella and Ned Coletta discussed the positive permit for Juniper Ridge Landfill, McKean landfill progress, and the strategic fit of Royal with internalization opportunities and margin improvement potential.

Q: Tyler Brown inquired about C&D issues and 2025 outlook.

A: Ned Coletta and Brad Helgeson talked about C&D market normalization expected in 2025, internalization efforts, and 2025 growth drivers including Willimantic MRF and landfill volume return.

Q: Adam Bubes asked about insurance expense accruals.

A: Ned Coletta explained the two discrete insurance events, including a workers' comp incident and an auto claim-related accrual.

Q: Stephanie Moore asked about synergy realization from prior deals.

A: Ned Coletta discussed ahead-of-plan synergies from Twin Bridges, progress in Mid-Atlantic assets, and delays in truck deliveries affecting Mid-Atlantic synergy capture.

Q: Brian Butler inquired about landfill closure and M&A pipeline.

A: Ned Coletta and John Casella discussed C&D volume return expectations and the M&A pipeline mix of small tuck-ins and adjacent market opportunities.

Q: Michael Feniger asked about M&A competition and cost inflation.

A: John Casella and Brad Helgeson talked about M&A pipeline competitiveness and stubborn cost inflation, budgeting for no easing in 2025 costs.

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Transcript

October 31, 2024

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