CENTURY ALUMINUM CO Q4 FY2024 earnings call

Key Points

• 2024 saw adjusted EBITDA of $245 million, with Q4 at $82 million, driven by strong aluminum prices and low energy costs.
• Global market expected to be in deficit by over 600,000 tonnes in 2025 due to strong demand and constrained supply.
• Indy hub power prices were favorable in Q4 but seasonality affected in Q1. Alumina had supply issues in Q4, settled with a $12 million benefit, with impact limited to Q1.
• Operations: Seabree had strong results, Mt. Holly's issue being addressed, Jamalco's workforce reduction and expansion plans, Hawesville evaluation ongoing, Grundartangi's power curtailments ending early.

In the fourth quarter, consolidated net sales were $631 million, an increase of $92 million sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century was $82 million. Global shipments were approximately 167,000 tonnes. Indy hub power prices were attractive in Q4 due to mild winter, but cold snaps in 2025 affected energy prices. Alumina supplies were tight in Q4, with API alumina prices hitting all-time highs then retreating. Seabree had a strong operating year in 2024. Mt. Holly had minor operational instability in Q4 but expected to return to normal in Q1. Jamalco had an excellent quarter in 2024 and a strong start in 2025, with a 5% workforce reduction. Hawesville evaluation was ongoing. Grundartangi's power curtailments ended early due to improved reservoir levels, with production to return to full in Q2.

Forward-Looking

• Q1 adjusted EBITDA expected in the range of $75 million to $85 million.
• Impact of Section 232 tariffs on Midwest Premium, with lagged reflection in financials (mostly in Q2).
• Full year 2025 shipments expected to be 700,000 tonnes. Sustaining CapEx estimated at $45 million to $50 million, investment CapEx at $25 million to $30 million.

Risks

• Alumina supply disruptions could impact operations.
• Energy price volatility, especially due to seasonality and global events.
• Operational issues at plants if not resolved promptly.

Q: Nick Giles asked about Midwest Premiums not reflecting in 1Q and bridging to earnings power.

A: Jesse Gary responded that Midwest Premium went from $0.20 in Q4 to $0.39 today, Q1 guide assumed $0.27, and could see further upside.

Q: Katja Jancic asked about Mt. Holly restart timeline and investment.

A: Jesse Gary said analysis is ongoing, with a ~nine-month timeline for restart and investment details to be announced later.

Q: Timna Tanners asked about Hawesville evaluation.

A: Jesse Gary said evaluation ongoing, strong interest in site, process continuing well.

Q: John Tumazos asked about Chinese aluminum output and 45 million tonne cap.

A: Jesse Gary stated Chinese are respecting the 45 million tonne cap, with actions like eliminating VAT rebate on export supporting this.