Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) Q4 FY2025 earnings call

Management Statement and Operational Highlights:

• Chris Rogers highlighted strong GTV growth in Q4 2025, with ads and other revenue up 10% YOY. Repurchased $1.1 billion worth of shares in Q4.
• Strategy focuses on being the platform for grocery needs, providing tech for grocers' omnichannel business, and ads ecosystem. Leveraging AI to accelerate execution, with increased velocity and efficiency.
• Marketplace has over 2,200 retail banners and nearly 100,000 locations. Enterprise drives deeper partnerships with retailers, unlocking system-wide value. AI is used across the business to improve execution, with average output per engineer up nearly 40% in the past year.

Segment Performance:

• Marketplace: GTV was $9.85 billion, up 14% year-over-year. Orders reached $89.5 million, up 16% year-over-year. Average order value decreased 1% year-over-year due to growth in restaurant orders.
• Enterprise: Powers more than 380 grocery e-commerce sites. Continues to expand with new partners and existing ones, like Costco in France and Spain, and Sprouts with in-store experiences.
• Ads and Other Revenue: Grew 10% year-over-year. Carrot Ads expanded to over 310 retailer-owned sites, and over 9,000 brands advertised on Instacart. Data solutions and off-platform partnerships also contributed.

Guidance:

• Q1 2026 GTV expected to range between $10.25 billion to $10.275 billion, representing 11%-13% year-over-year growth.
• Advertising and other revenue expected to grow 11%-14% year-over-year.
• Q1 adjusted EBITDA guided to $280 million to $290 million, up 15%-19% YOY but down Q/Q due to advertising seasonality.
• Fiscal 2026 aims for steady annual adjusted EBITDA growth outpacing GTV growth, with moderation as reinvestments are made.

Risks:

• Macro economic uncertainties affecting large brand partners.
• Competition from other players like Amazon, DoorDash, etc., which could impact market share.
• Execution risks related to AI integration and international expansion, including managing expenses in new markets.

Q: Update on Instacart+ adoption and investment?

A: Instacart+ continues to grow, with paid members more engaged and retaining better. Strategy includes $0 delivery, additional benefits, and expansion of use cases.

Q: Competition and Caper Carts monetization?

A: Competition has distinct use cases, Instacart wins in big baskets. Caper Carts has strong momentum, with thousands of cart commitments and early ad revenue signals.

Q: ChatGPT partnership and ad intensity, retail media evolution?

A: Partnership allows direct transactions in ChatGPT, focus on being discoverable, with AI improving ad relevance and efficiency.

Q: ChatGPT partnership impact on consumer behavior and competition with Dash/Uber?

A: Consumer behavior shift early, Cart Assistant in beta with plan to roll out by end of Q1. Competition with Dash/Uber is steady state, with Instacart remaining share leader.

Q: Advertising growth contributors and Kroger impact?

A: Ads growth driven by on-platform, off-platform is smaller but growing. Kroger's decision impacts but not quantified specifically.

Q: Ads opportunity in Europe and net new brands?

A: Approach to Europe focuses on existing tech, with ads as fast follow-on once services are at scale.