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ASML

ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding NV Q4 FY2025 earnings call

January 28, 2026 · fiscal period ended 2025-12

EPS · actual vs est

$8.55 / $9.05Miss -5.5%

Revenue · actual vs est

$11.31B / $10.23BBeat +10.5%
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Summary

Generated 2026-01-28

Management highlights

  • Industry context: AI is driving growth in advanced logic and DRAM, with increased demand for semiconductor capacity. AI is accelerating the need for silicon, driving volume and technology. - Product segments: EUV to have significant growth in 2026, with more shipments and increased litho intensity. High NA in progress with customers qualifying tools. Deep UV remains important for some technologies. Metrology and inspection business grew nearly 30% in 2025. 3D integration had the TWINSCAN XT:260 shipped last quarter. - Community engagement: Focus on mobility, affordable housing, culture (e.g., Rijksmuseum in Eindhoven), and education (long - standing relationship with TU University in Eindhoven). - Expansion: Opened major sites in Korea and the U.S. in 2025, with a big campus groundbreaking planned in 2026 for Eindhoven.
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Segment performance

In 2025, ASML had net revenue of EUR 32.7 billion. EUV was a major driver, growing 39% compared to 2024, with a mix of more tools and higher sales prices. Deep UV decreased 6%, mainly from China. Immersion had strong performance, especially on the dry side, and the 3D integration market saw a 20% increase. Installed base business grew 26%. Revenue contribution: EUV was a key contributor, immersion also significant, Deep UV had a decline, and installed base business added to the mix.

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Guidance

  • Q4 outlook: Net revenue between EUR 8.2 billion and EUR 8.9 billion, gross margin between 51% and 53%. - Full year 2026 outlook: Net revenue between EUR 34 billion and EUR 39 billion, driven by EUV growth, installed base business increase, and non - EUV business expected to be flattish with some segments like Deep UV for leading nodes expected to go up. EUV business to grow significantly, installed base business to increase, non - EUV business flattish with some segments up, metrology and inspection expected strong.
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Risks

  • Uncertainties in the semiconductor industry's capacity expansion and customer fab readiness. - Potential issues with the complexity of the organization leading to inefficiencies in innovation and responsiveness before the recent reorganization. - Impact of normalization of the China business on sales, as it is going down in absolute numbers and expected to continue decreasing.
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Q&A highlights

Q: Regarding the job cuts, what kind of restructuring costs or charges can we expect?

A: Subject to discussions with Work Council and union, not materially in numbers.

Q: How much of customers' capacity expansion announcements relate to real capacity expansion and how sustainable is it?

A: Customer capacity expansion translates to need for more tools, with recent announcements from Micron etc. translating directly to shipments for ASML.

Q: How is the AI memory shortage driving business and extent of customers' aggression in capacity expansion between memory and logic?

A: Memory demand for high bandwidth and DDR is high, memory customers moving aggressively as capacity is market share.

Q: How does the stabilizing AI market influence job growth in Eindhoven?

A: Long - term trajectory still growth, action on technology team leadership is focused, intention is to keep innovation engine strong.

Q: Does reorganization affect internal structure regarding D&E or R&D?

A: Yes, transformation mostly around D&E.

Q: Is supply chain prepared for huge demand in new machines?

A: Have put in long lead time items, working with supply chain to crank up move rate.

Q: Share of R&D spending between EUV - related and non - EUV?

A: Lion's share of R&D expense is EUV, but other products like 260 and 870 also have road maps.

Q: China business going down, is it in absolute numbers and what's driving it?

A: Going down in absolute numbers, normalizing as backlog from COVID period is being executed.

Q: Share of EUV growth in 2026 being High NA?

A: Vast share of growth will be in low NA.

Q: Progress on Hyper NA?

A: Working on high productivity platform to be prepared for future needs.

Q: Will ASML max out on capacity this year and what's the bottleneck?

A: Very busy year, bottleneck could be customers' fab readiness.

Q: How did reorganization situation come about and time frame?

A: Growth led to added axes causing confusion, spent over 12 months designing, timing depends on negotiations with unions, will be executed as soon as possible.

View in transcript ↓

Key numbers

Reported versus consensus

Earnings calendar feed

MetricReportedConsensusDeltaPrior year
EPS$8.55$9.05-5.5%$7.30
Revenue$11.31B$10.23B+10.5%$9.88B

Transcript

January 28, 2026

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