Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Adjusted EBITDA grew 6% versus the prior year quarter or 3% on a constant currency basis, with the result of $208 million towards the upper end of guidance. Shipments growth in Europe and North America, lower operational and overhead costs, and favorable category mix supported adjusted EBITDA growth. Beverage can continues to benefit from innovation and share gains. Progressed sustainability agenda with strong progress in 2024, including 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, with Scope 3 emissions 25% below the 2020 baseline.

Europe

• Third quarter revenue increased by 9% to $625 million or 3% on a constant currency basis. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA increased by 4% to $82 million. Shipments grew by 2% in the quarter, driven by growth in energy drinks and faster-growing categories like ciders, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, wines and water. Full year 2025 shipment growth for Europe is expected to be low single-digit percentage. For 2026, the market is expected to grow around 3% to 4% and volumes are expected to broadly match that growth.

Americas

• Third quarter revenue increased by 8% to $803 million. Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 8% to $126 million. In North America, shipments increased by 1% for the quarter, year-to-date up by 5%. Brazil third quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 17% due to a weak industry backdrop. Full year North America shipments are expected to have mid-single-digit percentage growth. For 2026, the industry growth in North America is expected to be low single-digit, with AMP having a softer outlook due to volume resets. For Brazil, Q4 is expected to have improved volume trend compared to Q3, full year shipments are broadly in line with the prior year, and 2026 the Brazilian industry is expected to return to growth with volumes tracking the industry.

• Upgraded full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to be in the range of $720 million to $735 million based on current FX rates. Full year shipments growth for AMP is expected to be approximately 3%. North America 2026 industry growth expected to be low single-digit, AMP outlook softer with volume resets, 2027 expected to have good growth. Europe 2026 market expected to grow around 3% to 4% with volumes broadly matching. Brazil 2026 industry expected to return to growth with volumes tracking the industry.

• Global volumes were below expectations in the quarter. Supply chain issues in North America including aluminum can sheet supply problems and temporary plant and network issues. Potential impact of aluminum price inflation and tariff roll-offs on demand elasticity. Weak performance in the beer category in Europe affecting growth.

Q: On beer in Europe and North America, aluminum conversion costs?

A: Too early to call secular shift in Europe beer. Aluminum conversion cost headwinds moderating in Europe next year with import routes and capacity considerations. In North America, beer has secular pressure but Europe doesn't have same depth of other products.

Q: On North America contracts, aluminum costs, supply chain?

A: North America contract changes mostly due to footprint issues. Aluminum costs have crept up, impact on pricing and volumes uncertain. Supply chain in North America with new mills helpful, Europe scrap situation not significantly changing current outlook.

Q: On final questions about Europe beer, aluminum, supply chain?

A: Europe beer weakness not due to weather, mostly consumer weakness. Aluminum costs have a moderating impact next year. Supply chain in North America with new mills positive, Europe scrap flows not significantly affecting current situation