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Antero Midstream Corp.

Antero Midstream Corp. Q4 FY2024 earnings call

February 13, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12

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Summary

Generated 2025-02-13

Management highlights

• Paul Rady highlighted Antero Midstream Corporation's consistent EBITDA growth for ten consecutive years, with 2024 EBITDA of $1.05 billion and a record ROIC of 19%. He discussed the 2025 capital budget, including $85 million for gathering/compression (with the Torrey Speed compressor station expected in Q2 2025) and $85 million for the water business expansion. • Brendan Krueger noted the fourth quarter 2024 EBITDA of $274 million (8% y/y growth), free cash flow after dividends of $93 million (91% y/y growth), and full-year 2024 free cash flow after dividends of $250 million (company record). He outlined 2025 guidance with mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, $250 million to $300 million free cash flow after dividends (10% y/y midpoint increase), and plans to maintain $0.90 dividend and allocate remaining free cash flow to share repurchases and debt reduction.

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Segment performance

In 2024, Antero Midstream Corporation generated EBITDA of $1.05 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2024, EBITDA was $274 million, an 8% year-over-year increase. For 2025, the capital budget is $170 million to $200 million, consisting of approximately $100 million of organic capital (about $85 million for gathering and compression, and $85 million for the water business) and $15 million investment in the Stonewall joint venture.

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Guidance

• 2025 capital budget is $170 million to $200 million. • Expect mid-single-digit EBITDA growth driven by throughput growth and CPI adjustments to fees. • Anticipate $250 million to $300 million in free cash flow after dividends (10% y/y increase at midpoint). • Plan to maintain $0.90 per share dividend and allocate remaining free cash flow after dividends to share repurchases and additional debt reduction.

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Risks

• Veolia lawsuit: Ongoing appeal process with no additional disclosure beyond what's in 10-Ks, and no opinion on where the process will play out at this juncture.

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Q&A highlights

Q: Relating to data centers, can you talk about Antero Resources' plans and how it translates to Antero Midstream Corporation?

A: Antero Resources is in discussions regarding data center opportunities in Appalachia, and Antero Midstream Corporation, as the primary midstream service provider to Antero Resources, will be part of those discussions, though early in the conversation.

Q: Relating to Antero Resources' increased production guide, can Antero Resources return to higher activity levels in 2025 and assume rental activity?

A: Antero Resources has a drilling JV for 2025, leading to low single-digit volume increases at Antero Midstream Corporation level, combined with CPI escalator on fees driving mid-single-digit EBITDA growth in 2025.

Q: Details on Veolia lawsuit events in December and use of $19 million for attorney's fees?

A: No additional disclosure outside 10-Ks; waiting on appeal process; cash from lawsuit will be analyzed for capital allocation, likely continuing portfolio approach of debt pay down and share buybacks.

Q: Details on $85 million water infrastructure investment in Marcellus and cost efficiencies?

A: The $85 million includes an integrated water system allowing Antero Resources to develop across the liquids-rich corridor, reducing overall capital spend on infrastructure in the southern portion; also building out the water system backbone in the northern part of the play.

Q: Drivers of water business step-ups, impact from Antero Resources Drilling partnership, and water business trend vs production?

A: Fourth quarter growth due to a duck pad completed in December with two completion crews; 2025 water volume expected similar to 2024, with lateral lengths shorter but more water in second quarter due to a duck pad completion in third quarter.

Q: Capital allocation with solid free cash flow outlook, M&A vs buybacks vs deleveraging; buyback run rate?

A: Looking at M&A opportunities relative to returns vs debt pay down and buybacks; buybacks will be allocated based on expected free cash flow, with a mix of share repurchases and debt pay down; buyback run rate will be based on free cash flow analysis under the $500 million authorization.

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Transcript

February 13, 2025

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