EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2026-02-25
Management highlights
- Commercial business: Expect to generate revenues > $1.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA > $370 million in 2026. Recently completed acquisition of Avidel accelerates entry into commercial sleep medicine market. - Alexorexin: Plan to enter phase three in narcolepsy this quarter, with FDA breakthrough therapy designation, and had end - of - phase two meeting with FDA. - Orexin - 2 receptor agonist candidates: Advancing development programs in multiple disease areas. - Management change: Richard Pops will pass CEO torch to Blair Jackson in summer, with Richard continuing as chairman.
Segment performance
In 2025, Alchemy generated total revenues of nearly $1.5 billion. Proprietary product portfolio grew 9% year - over - year, generating approximately $1.2 billion in net sales. Vivitrol net sales were $467.9 million, Aristata net sales were $370 million, Lebalvi net sales were $346.7 million. Manufacturing and royalty revenues were $291.3 million, including $130.5 million from Vermerity and $109.6 million from long - acting Invega products. For 2026, total revenues are expected to be in the range of $1.73 to $1.84 billion, with proprietary product net sales in the range of $1.52 to $1.6 billion, and manufacturing and royalty revenues in the range of $210 to $240 million.
Guidance
- 2026 total revenues expected in range of $1.73 - $1.84 billion, adjusted EBITDA in range of $370 - $410 million. - First quarter 2026 net sales from proprietary commercial product portfolio expected in range of $310 - $330 million, royalty and manufacturing revenues in range of $40 - $45 million. - R&D expenses expected in range of $445 - $485 million in 2026, SG&A expenses in range of $890 - $930 million, net interest expense in range of $75 - $85 million, net tax benefit of approx $20 million.
Q&A highlights
Q: When thinking about phase three trial design and split dosing for candidates, how to think about AE profile?
A: Data so far for orexin - 2 receptor agonists in narcolepsy treatment are generally well - tolerated. Split doses are modeled to drive later hours of wakefulness with similar AE profile.
Q: Now that Avidel deal is closed, speak more about potential synergies across sales force between psychiatry and sleep sales force?
A: Excited about integration of Avidel commercial team. Currently, no overlap between psychiatry and sleep sales force, but will see synergies when launching elixirexin.
Q: Medical rationale for narcolepsy patients taking both oxypates and orexinacidins, and why orexin agonists wouldn't cannibalize oxypate market?
A: Orexin agonists work on wakefulness side, oxypates on fragmented sleep. There will be cohort of patients for whom both are important. Dedicated cadre of patients will continue to value oxypates, and Alchemy will be only company with agents in both camps.
Q: Help understand internal bar for ESS in Lumerize Phase III and importance of key secondaries?
A: IH study mirrors previous OxyBait program. Primary is ESS, key secondaries are PGIC and IHSS, expectation is similar to ZyWave.
Q: Discussed key factors for Phase III trial in IH with FDA yet?
A: For IH, will get Phase II data from Vibrant study, have end of Phase II meeting with FDA, then map out phase three program.
Q: Plans to study elixirexin along with anoxibate together to explore synergistic effect?
A: There's potential benefit for certain patients. Will be only company with agents in both camps, and will build evidence for reimbursement.
Q: How thinking about field force for Loomrise, and breadth vs depth?
A: Currently feel sales force is right - sized. Target is about 50,000 OxyBait eligible patients, sales force lined up against that.
Q: How to think about underlying SG&A spend beyond 2026?
A: 2026 SG&A has $50 million one - time transaction costs. Excluding that, base company SG&A is flat. Will control spending and reallocate as business evolves.
Q: Impact of first - generation full genetic market formation on Loomrise?
A: Lumerize has advantage as only once - nightly oxibate. Payer access is strong currently, will watch second half.
Q: Development plan for valyloxibate?
A: Valyloxibate is interesting asset. Will move program forward quickly, leverage formulation capabilities.
Q: Details about ADHD study, and considering enriching population for specific phenotypes?
A: Not going to enrich for specific phenotypes. Will move quickly into translational study to discern dose response and efficacy signal.
Q: Color on split dosing program for LRX program, like when second dose taken and food restrictions?
A: Won't give specificity on split - dose strategy, but objective is to drive additional wakefulness in later hours with minimized side effects.
Q: Timing of decision to give up CEO role while staying chairman, and phase three design strategy including split dosing?
A: Time to pass baton when company is in strong position. Blair has been partner through transformation. Phase three will include split doses in NT1.
Q: Learnings from Takeda's commercial launch and pricing for elixirexin?
A: Interesting unknown is pricing, which will set tone for market receptivity. Takeda's launch will be watched, and pricing will inform Alchemy's strategy.
Q: 7290 and ADHD, comparison to stimulants and non - stimulants?
A: Preclinical data shows orexin pathway has important effects in ADHD model systems. Will see clinical signs in study, but no a priori sense of comparison to stimulants or non - stimulants.
Q: Dynamic of generic entry for Vivitrol in 2027 and Teva's capability?
A: Plan to continue growth of Vivitrol. Prepared for multiple scenarios in 2027. Teva's capability to manufacture generics will be watched.
Q: When can we expect more detailed data on NT2, and primary endpoint in NT2 Phase III study?
A: NT2 results submitted for presentations at SLEAP in June. Phase III NT1, NT2 studies will have primary analysis on MWT with key secondary including ESS.
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.29 | $0.43 | -32.0% | $0.29 |
| Revenue | $384.5M | $359.1M | +7.1% | $384.5M |
Transcript
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