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AEE

AMEREN CORP

AMEREN CORP Q4 FY2024 earnings call

February 14, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12

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Summary

Generated 2025-02-14

Management highlights

• Strategic infrastructure investments: Approximately $4.3 billion invested in 2024. • 2024 adjusted earnings: $4.63 per share, above 2024 guidance midpoint. • Regulatory progress: Missouri PSC staff recommended $398M annual revenue increase in electric rate review; Illinois ICC approved grid plan and Multi-Year Rate Plan. • Cost management: Ameren Missouri all-in O&M expenses down $12M year-over-year when excluding onetime NSR charge. • Generation plans: Three new solar facilities totaling 500 MW placed in service in Q4 2024; 1,200 MW of approved generation under construction; updated Preferred Resource Plan to serve 1.5 GW additional demand by 2032. • Transmission: MISO approved nearly $22B Tranche 2.1 portfolio, with Ameren leading $1.3B of projects in Missouri and Illinois. • Legislative update: Missouri legislative session ongoing with bills related to energy policy and transmission.

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Segment performance

In 2024, weather-normalized retail sales grew approximately 2% across Ameren Missouri. Residential sales grew 2%, commercial 1.5%, and industrial 3%. Industrial sales were robust due to growth from manufacturing and technology sectors. Absolute terms: 2024 adjusted earnings were $4.63 per share compared to $4.38 per share in 2023. Revenue contribution: Industrial sales growth contributed to overall sales growth.

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Guidance

• 2025 earnings guidance: Range of $4.85 per share to $5.05 per share, midpoint represents ~7% growth vs 2024 adjusted earnings. • Long-term EPS growth: Expect 6% to 8% compound annual earnings per share growth from 2025-2029. • Dividend: Board approved 6% quarterly dividend increase, annualized rate $2.84 per share, 12th consecutive year of increase. • Rate base growth: Expect rate base to grow at 9.2% compound annual rate from 2024-2029.

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Risks

• Regulatory uncertainties: Differences in regulatory requests (e.g., return on equity) in rate reviews that may impact revenue and earnings. • Timing issues: Uncertainties in the timing of regulatory decisions (e.g., Missouri PSC decision expected by May) and legislative outcomes that could affect investment timelines. • Supply chain challenges: Potential challenges in procuring new gas-fired generation and other materials, impacting capital investment timelines and costs.

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Q&A highlights

Q: Dig into the growth profile, specifically rate base CAGR and sales growth.

A: Marty Lyons mentioned strong building blocks with sales growth outlined, capital plan, and updated IRP changes. EPS growth goal is to deliver at or above midpoint, with sales growth ramping up mid to late in the period.

Q: Reconcile resource plan scenarios and capacity headroom.

A: Martin Lyons stated the preferred plan can serve 1.5 GW additional demand by 2032 and more, with 1.8 GW of construction agreements signed, and ongoing engagement with potential developers.

Q: Balance sheet and FFO to debt.

A: Michael Moehn said Ameren feels good about balance sheet, positioned strongly with equity to support Baa1/BBB+ ratings.

Q: MISO opportunities and capital plan upside.

A: Michael Moehn discussed transmission projects, with $1.3B awarded to Ameren in Tranche 2 and competitive projects to fill out the plan.

Q: Sales growth outlook and risked pipeline.

A: Martin Lyons and Michael Moehn explained sales growth based on construction agreements, data center demand, and historical sales growth.

Q: Updated IRP and new nuclear capacity.

A: Martin Lyons discussed long-term nuclear plans, technology agnostic approach, and monitoring of nuclear options.

Q: Regulatory lag and legislative outcomes.

A: Michael Moehn talked about managing regulatory lag and prudent earning, while Martin Lyons discussed legislative initiatives supporting investment.

Q: Gas fired generation procurement and S&P rating.

A: Michael Moehn stated confidence in procuring gas generation and Ameren is closer to upgrade threshold at S&P.

Q: Large load tariff details.

A: Martin Lyons said tariff discussions are ongoing, premature to specify structure but focuses on contract items.

Q: Missouri rate case settlement and financing plan.

A: Michael Moehn discussed constructive conversations in rate case and financing plan minimizing incremental equity issuance.

Q: EPS growth headwinds and 2026 outlook.

A: Martin Lyons said no specific headwinds expected for 2026, with sales growth ramping up later in the period.

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Key numbers

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Transcript

February 14, 2025

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