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プライム · 非鉄金属 · 鉄鋼・非鉄 · JP
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Q4 FY2025 · Feb 13, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
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Overall Business Context & Financial Progress
- The business environment remained uncertain due to impacts from national trade policies, unstable foreign exchange rates, and persistently high resource/energy prices. Ryobi pursued active sales efforts alongside cost reduction and productivity improvement initiatives.
- 2025 is the first year of the 2025-2027 mid-term management plan. Consolidated sales and operating profit exceeded initial targets, ROE improved by ~2 percentage points year-over-year to 6.4%, on track to hit the 2027 target of over 7% and the 2035 long-term target of over 9%.
- Ryobi has set a 2035 long-term vision of 450.0 billion yen in sales, 27.0 billion yen in operating profit, and ROE of 9%+, with a 2027 mid-term target of 337.0 billion yen in sales, 15.0 billion yen in operating profit, and ROE of 7%.
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Die-casting Business Operational Updates
- 2025 total production volume exceeded 270,000 tons, a 6% increase year-over-year. Production weight increased in Japan, the Americas, China, and the UK, while it declined in Thailand.
- To pursue new orders and customer acquisition, Ryobi held over 140 technical presentations to domestic and overseas customers (over 100 to non-automotive sectors) using VR technology to promote die-casting advantages and new applications.
- A large product prototyping factory at Kikugawa Mill started operation in March 2025 to serve growing automotive sector demand, and factory tours have helped secure prototype orders. Ryobi also exhibited at EUROGUSS 2026 in Germany to promote lightweighting and integrated molding solutions.
- Implemented AI-powered automated visual inspection, building a system capable of handling various defect cases; achieved zero false misjudgments while inspecting ~600,000 units annually in 2025. Implemented a company-wide PDCA cycle on casting floors to reduce unexpected stops and achieve a
Guidance
- Consolidated Full-Year 2026 (December Fiscal Year) Guidance: Sales of 313.0 billion yen (3.9 billion yen increase year-over-year), operating profit of 12.8 billion yen (0.1 billion yen increase year-over-year), ordinary profit of 13.3 billion yen (1.3 billion yen decrease year-over-year, driven by the absence of prior-year foreign exchange gains and subsidy income), and net profit attributable to parent company shareholders of 11.5 billion yen (0.3 billion yen increase year-over-year).
- Die-casting Production Volume Guidance: 2026 total consolidated production volume will exceed 280,000 tons, a 2% increase year-over-year. Production in Japan will rise in the second half as new orders enter full mass production; production in the Americas and China will be flat year-over-year; the UK will see a slight decline; Thailand will see growth in the second half as new products enter mass production.
- Segment 2026 Guidance: Die-casting: sales of 280.0 billion yen (+5.7 billion yen YoY), operating profit of 12.3 billion yen (+1.0 billion yen YoY), expecting increased sales and profit. Building and Housing Equipment: sales of 11.5 billion yen (+0.6 billion yen YoY), operating profit of 0.2 billion yen (+0.1 billion yen YoY), expecting growth in both domestic and overseas sales and profit. Printing Equipment: sales of 21.5 billion yen (-2.2 billion yen YoY), operating profit of 0.3 billion yen (-1.0 billion yen YoY), expecting lower sales and profit driven by declining domestic demand.
- Capital Expenditure Guidance: 2026 planned capital expenditure is 22.0 billion yen, an increase driven by new product-related equipment; depreciation is expected to be flat year-over-year at 19.0 billion yen. Most capital expenditure will be allocated to Japan, focused on new product processing equipment, seismic retrofitting of existing headquarter buildings, and partial equipment upgrades, with no large-scale projects comparable to the Kikugawa Mill giga-casting investment.
- Interest-bearing Debt Guidance: 2026 expected closing interest-bearing debt balance is 70.0 billion yen; Ryobi will continue to effectively use leverage to fund strategic capital expenditure and shareholder returns.
- Strategic Product Forecast: The share of strategic lightweighting and electrification components in new orders is expected to recover to 73% in 2026 from 55% in 2025, driven by rising orders for hybrid vehicle case components.
- Disclosure Policy: Ryobi will provide semi-annual progress updates and reviews of the mid-term management plan, with a full review of the 2025-2027 plan and disclosure of the next mid-term plan scheduled for February 2028.
Segment performance
- Die-casting Business: Sales of 274.3 billion yen, an increase of 16.4 billion yen year-over-year. Operating profit of 11.3 billion yen, an increase of 2.3 billion yen year-over-year. Revenue contribution %: 88.7% of total consolidated sales. Both domestic and overseas sales grew, and higher sales absorbed increased fixed costs to deliver profit growth. 2. Building and Housing Equipment Business: Sales of 10.9 billion yen, a decrease of 0.2 billion yen year-over-year. Operating profit of 0.1 billion yen, turning a net profit from a year-ago loss of 0.4 billion yen. Revenue contribution %: 3.5% of total consolidated sales. Both domestic and overseas sales declined, but profit growth came from productivity improvement efforts and contributions from the Chinese manufacturing subsidiary acquired two years prior. 3. Printing Equipment Business: Sales of 23.7 billion yen, a decrease of 0.5 billion yen year-over-year. Operating profit of 1.3 billion yen, an increase of 0.4 billion yen year-over-year. Revenue contribution %: 7.7% of total consolidated sales. Domestic sales declined while overseas sales were flat, but productivity improvement offset the impact of rising raw material prices to deliver profit growth.
Risks & headwinds
- Persistent macro uncertainty: Unstable foreign exchange rates, persistently high resource and energy prices, and impacts from international trade policies create ongoing uncertainty for business performance.
- Near-term slowdown in BEV growth: The slower-than-expected expansion of battery electric vehicles has led Ryobi to lower its 2030 BEV penetration forecast by 3 percentage points and its 2030 electrification component penetration forecast by 1 percentage point, though growing hybrid vehicle demand is expected to offset this impact and keep overall die-casting demand steady.
- Printing equipment headwinds: The printing equipment business faces stagnation from U.S. tariffs and the Chinese economic slowdown; domestic subsidy support for capital investment is expected to decline, leading to a sharp projected drop in 2026 profit. Order backlog has also decreased year-over-year.
- Pressured profitability in some regions: The UK die-casting business continues to face difficult market conditions, and slower BEV growth is expected to reduce die-casting profitability in the U.S. in 2026.
- Working capital pressure: Early payment to suppliers for transaction compliance will continue for several years, which is expected to continue suppressing operating cash flow growth.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Regarding the die-casting production volume projection on page 13, Japan is projected to rise strongly in the second half of 2026, exceeding 30,000 tons in Q4. What is driving this growth, and what types of new projects are contributing? Also, what type of new project is driving the projected growth in Thailand?
A: Growth in Japan comes from multiple new projects entering mass production, while growth in Thailand comes from ramping up production of one major new product.
Q: The 2026 profit forecast for printing equipment shows a very large year-over-year decline, which is unprecedented historically. Is this large decline highly likely, or is this a conservative forecast? Also, is it correct that order backlog has declined significantly currently?
A: Large government subsidies for domestic capital investment have been very strong in recent years, but we expect these subsidies to decrease going forward. While we expect some overseas sales growth, overseas profit margins are lower than domestic margins, so overall profit will decline. It is correct that order backlog has decreased compared to the same period last year.
Q: What is the background behind Ryobi's push for transaction compliance and shorter payment terms to suppliers? Is Ryobi also seeing shorter payment terms from its own customers? Will this trend of shorter payment terms to suppliers continue in the new fiscal year, or is the process mostly complete?
A: Many of our suppliers are subject to the Japanese Subcontractor Act, so we are strongly pushing to shorten payment terms in compliance with regulations. On the accounts receivable side, Ryobi is not generally a subcontractor subject to the act, so receivable terms are not shortening as quickly, but major customers are also shortening payment terms in line with broader industry trends for transaction compliance. We will continue to expand the number of suppliers eligible for early payment, so this initiative will continue for the next several years.
Q: 2026 planned capital expenditure is 22.0 billion yen, which is higher than last year's level that included the large Kikugawa Mill giga-casting investment. What is driving this higher planned spending, and what types of projects are included? What region will see the most investment, and does strategic products refer to the same electrification and body components that Ryobi has prioritized previously?
A: The higher spending comes from accumulated small- to medium-sized projects, not a single large-scale project like the giga-casting investment. It includes processing equipment for new products, seismic retrofitting of existing buildings at the headquarters, and partial equipment upgrades for existing facilities. Currently, most investment is expected to be allocated to Japan. Yes, the definition of strategic products is unchanged as electrification and body components.
Q: What impact do you expect from concerns over DRAM and rare metals for OEM operations in the coming fiscal year?
A: At this point, we do not see any major impact comparable to prior semiconductor shortage or certification issues, and we have not incorporated any such impact into our 2026 forecast, as we have not received any information indicating significant disruptions will occur.
Q: What is the outlook for tariff cost sharing with OEMs this coming year? Will Ryobi's share of tariff costs increase going forward?
A: We understand that OEMs have absorbed most tariff costs in recent periods, and we have not received any new price negotiations specifically to shift tariff costs to Ryobi. We expect that OEMs/end consumers will continue to absorb most tariff costs, and this current arrangement is expected to continue. However, we do expect that pressure for cost reduction from suppliers will strengthen going forward.
Q: What impact has the trend of increasing sourcing from Chinese suppliers by Japanese OEMs had on Ryobi, and what is the current market trend in China?
A: We have not seen any evidence that our customers in Japan and the U.S. are shifting sourcing from Ryobi to Chinese die-casting suppliers. In China's domestic market, overall production is trending down as major local automakers face difficult conditions, but demand for die-casting from automakers that produce units in China for export to Europe as complete vehicles remains strong. While we may lose some share to local Chinese suppliers, our existing local customer business in China is growing steadily, so we expect this to offset any potential losses.
Q: With shorter supplier payment terms expected to continue for several years, can Ryobi maintain projected operating cash flow under the mid-term plan? If operating cash flow is weaker than expected, will Ryobi adjust its capital expenditure and shareholder return policies?
A: We expect operating cash flow may see some stagnation, so we will maintain a careful balance between capital expenditure and shareholder returns.
Q: Can you share quantitative results of your productivity improvement initiatives?
A: We have achieved a 20% reduction in casting defect rates, bringing the rate down from around 13% to around 10%. We have also made progress on reducing labor input, shortening tact time to increase good units produced per hour, and improving efficiency through line review and automation, but we will not disclose additional quantitative figures at this time.
Q: Have there been changes in die-casting profitability by country/region?
A: Domestic Japanese profitability remains stable. The U.S. is generally steady, but slower BEV growth is expected to reduce profitability in 2026. The UK remains in a challenging situation. China's profitability is relatively stable, and we expect further growth going forward.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 5, 2026