Xcel 2025-26: $60B+ Capex Plan, FY26 EPS $4.04-$4.16
FY25 revenue $14.67B (+9%); Op income $2.88B (+21%); NI $2.02B (+4%); EPS $3.42 (-1%). Ongoing earnings $3.80/share — 21st consecutive year of meeting/exceeding initial ongoing earnings guidance. Weather-adjusted electric sales +2.2%. $12B invested in 2025; >$60B over next 5 years. FY26 EPS guide $4.04-$4.16. Long-term: 6-8%+ earnings growth, 9% EPS CAGR average through 2030.
Key takeaways
- 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding initial ongoing earnings guidance. Among the longest streaks in regulated utility space. Ongoing EPS $3.80 FY25 vs $3.50 FY24.
- $60B+ capex over 5 years. Major capital plan — generation transition + grid modernization + transmission. Investment supports +6-8% earnings growth.
- Long-term 9% EPS CAGR through 2030. Mgmt guides "6 to 8 plus percent long-term earnings growth and 9% EPS growth on average through 2030" — among the highest in utility peer group.
- Weather-adjusted sales +2.2% FY25, +3% FY26. Driven by C&I load in SPS (Texas/New Mexico) + PSCO (Colorado) — data center + industrial + electrification driving sustained demand.
- FY26 EPS $4.04-$4.16. Reaffirmed guidance. Implied +6-9% growth from $3.80 ongoing FY25.
Business
Xcel Energy is a regulated electric + gas utility serving 3.7M+ electric + 2.1M+ gas customers across 8 states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas). Multi-utility holding structure with four subsidiaries:
- Northern States Power Minnesota (NSP-Minnesota) (~25% of revenue): Vertically-integrated electric + gas. Twin Cities + Minnesota service area.
- Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCO) (~30% of revenue): Vertically-integrated electric + gas. Colorado Front Range + data center alley.
- Southwestern Public Service (SPS) (~15% of revenue): Texas Panhandle + Eastern New Mexico electric. Rapid load growth on data centers + oil patch industrial.
- Northern States Power Wisconsin (NSP-Wisconsin) + others (~30% of revenue): Wisconsin + Michigan electric/gas + smaller operations.
Strategic positioning: among the largest renewable energy producers in US (wind + solar). Coal retirement program nearly complete in MN; gas + renewable + nuclear (via NextEra purchases) the future generation mix. Texas/New Mexico SPS is the high-growth piece on data center + industrial.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 14.21 | 13.44 | 14.67 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 5.98 | 6.15 | 3.57 |
| Op income ($B) | 2.48 | 2.39 | 2.88 |
| Op margin | 17.5% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 5.20 | 5.59 | 6.07 |
| Net income ($B) | 1.77 | 1.94 | 2.02 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 3.21 | 3.44 | 3.42 |
| Ongoing EPS ($) | $3.35 | $3.50 | $3.80 |
| FCF ($B) | -0.53 | -2.72 | 5.25 |
| Capex ($B) | -5.85 | -7.36 | 1.17 |
| Total debt ($B) | 27.51 | 30.21 | 34.78 |
| Dividends ($B) | -1.09 | -1.18 | -1.28 |
(Note: FY25 capex line in financial_statements appears reclassified — actual capex was ~$12B per management commentary.)
The earnings print: Revenue +9% on rate cases + load growth; op margin +200bp to 19.6%; ongoing EPS +9% to $3.80. GAAP EPS $3.42 reflects timing items.
Total debt $34.78B (+$4.6B YoY) funding capex.
Capital allocation
- Capex: ~$12B FY25 per disclosure. $60B+ 5-year plan.
- Dividends: $-1.28B FY25 (+8% YoY).
- Buybacks: zero. Capital priority on capex.
- Debt management: $34.78B (+$4.6B YoY) funding capex.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-05)
| FY26 / Long-term | Guide |
|---|---|
| FY26 EPS | $4.04-$4.16 (reaffirmed) |
| Long-term earnings growth | 6 to 8 plus percent |
| EPS CAGR through 2030 | 9% average |
| Weather-adjusted electric sales | +3% FY26 |
| 5-year capex plan | $60B+ |
| Customer demands | Electrification + grid modernization |
The long-term 9% EPS CAGR is among the highest in regulated utility peers. Capital plan supports the rate base growth needed to deliver.
Key risks
- Regulatory rate cases: 8-state utility footprint requires consistent rate case wins.
- Generation transition: Coal retirements + gas + renewables build-out execution. Stranded asset risk.
- Texas/New Mexico load conversion: Data center + industrial customers must energize.
- Storm + wildfire: Texas/New Mexico/Colorado/Minnesota all weather exposure.
- Interest rates: Utility valuations + debt cost both sensitive.
- Tariff / supply chain: Transformer + cable inputs exposed.
Bottom line
XEL FY25 is the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding initial ongoing earnings guidance + $12B capex + $60B+ 5-year plan. Revenue +9%, ongoing EPS $3.80 (+9%), op margin +200bp. FY26 EPS $4.04-$4.16 + long-term 9% EPS CAGR. Risks are regulatory + generation transition + Texas/New Mexico load + interest rates. Among the highest-growth utility plays.
Citations
- Xcel Energy Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- Xcel Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-05 — ongoing EPS $3.80 (21st consecutive year of meeting/exceeding initial guide), $12B invested in 2025, $60B+ over 5 years, weather-adjusted electric sales +2.2% FY25 / +3% FY26; FY26 EPS $4.04-$4.16; long-term 6-8+% earnings growth, 9% EPS CAGR average through 2030.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).