Vulcan 2025-26: Aggregate Cash GP/Ton $11.33, FY26 EBITDA $2.4-2.6B
FY25 revenue $7.93B (+7%); Op income $1.59B (+17%); NI $1.08B (+19%); EPS $8.12 (+19%). Adj EBITDA $2.3B (+13%) with margin +160bp to 29.3%. Aggregate shipments ~227M tons (+3%); same-store slightly lower. Aggregates cash gross profit per ton $11.33; mix-adjusted price +6% FY / +5% Q4. Downstream businesses ~$290M cash GP. FY26 guide: shipments +1-3%, prices +4-6%, EBITDA $2.4-$2.6B, $750M reinvestment.
Key takeaways
- Adj EBITDA $2.3B (+13%) with margin +160bp. Op margin 20.1%, EBITDA margin 29.3%. Pricing power compounding even on slightly down same-store volume.
- Aggregates cash gross profit per ton $11.33. Continued ascending. Pricing +6% mix-adjusted FY / +5% Q4 — durable pricing power despite weaker resi single-family.
- Resi softness offset by infrastructure + non-resi. Single-family residential activity weaker than expected, but state DOT + commercial + reindustrialization continued to absorb capacity.
- FY26 guide: aggregate shipments +1-3%, prices +4-6%, EBITDA $2.4-$2.6B. Continued mid-single-digit pricing + low-single-digit volume.
- Capital allocation discipline. $750M reinvestment + bolt-on M&A. Buybacks $-438M FY25 (vs $-69M FY24). Dividend +6%.
Business
Vulcan Materials is the largest US producer of construction aggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone), with downstream concrete + asphalt + cement + lime in select markets. Single segment business with two product groups:
- Aggregates (~75-80% of revenue, dominant profit driver): Crushed stone, sand, gravel. ~227M tons shipped FY25. Cash GP/ton $11.33. ~370+ aggregate sites across 22 states + Mexico + Bahamas.
- Asphalt + Concrete + Calcium (~20-25% of revenue, lower margin): Downstream products in markets where Vulcan has aggregates. Combined cash GP $290M FY25.
Strategic position: largest US aggregates company by tonnage. Aggregates a structurally protected business — high transport cost / weight ratio limits competition to local market. Pricing has compounded mid-single-digit annually for over a decade.
End markets: Public infrastructure ~50% (state DOT + airports + IIJA-funded), Non-residential ~25% (commercial + industrial + data center + manufacturing), Residential ~25% (homes + multifamily — soft single-family in FY25).
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 7.78 | 7.42 | 7.93 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| Op income ($B) | 1.43 | 1.36 | 1.59 |
| Op margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 20.1% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 2.04 | 1.98 | 2.57 |
| Adj EBITDA ($B) | ~2.04 | ~2.04 | 2.30 |
| Net income ($M) | 933 | 912 | 1,081 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 6.98 | 6.85 | 8.12 |
| FCF ($M) | 664 | 806 | 1,135 |
| Capex ($M) | -873 | -604 | -678 |
| Total debt ($B) | 4.39 | 5.83 | 5.41 |
| Dividends ($M) | -228 | -244 | -260 |
| Buyback ($M) | -200 | -69 | -438 |
The earnings print: Revenue +7%, op margin +170bp, EPS +19%. Aggregates pricing the dominant lever; same-store volume slightly down on resi softness.
FCF $1.13B (+41%) — strong cash conversion.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-678M FY25 (8.5% of revenue). FY26 plans ~$750M.
- Dividends: $-260M FY25 (+6% YoY).
- Buybacks: $-438M FY25 (6× FY24).
- M&A: Continued bolt-on aggregates + downstream.
- Debt: $5.41B (-$0.42B YoY) modest paydown.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-17)
| FY26 guide | Range |
|---|---|
| Aggregate shipments | +1% to +3% |
| Aggregate freight-adjusted prices | +4% to +6% |
| Aggregate unit cash cost of sales | Low-single-digit increase |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2.4B-$2.6B (+4-13%) |
| Reinvestment | ~$750M |
The +4-6% pricing + low-single cost increase = positive price-cost spread continuing. EBITDA $2.4-2.6B implies +4-13% growth.
Key risks
- Construction cycle: Despite pricing power, volume slip from recession would compress.
- Pricing discipline: Mid-single-digit annual pricing depends on industry capacity discipline.
- Diesel + energy costs: Aggregates production + transport energy-intensive.
- Regulatory + permitting: New aggregate site permitting increasingly difficult; existing sites are scarce assets.
- Severe weather: Affects quarter-by-quarter shipments + downstream demand.
- Resi cycle: Single-family weaker FY25; sustained softness compresses volume.
Bottom line
VMC FY25 is the pricing power compounding year. Revenue +7%, EBITDA +13%, EPS +19%, cash GP/ton $11.33. FY26 guide shipments +1-3% / pricing +4-6% / EBITDA $2.4-$2.6B. Risks are construction cycle + pricing discipline + diesel + permitting + resi. Quality aggregates franchise + IIJA + reindustrialization tailwinds.
Citations
- Vulcan Materials Company FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- VMC Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-17 — adj EBITDA $2.3B (+13%) with margin +160bp to 29.3%, aggregate shipments ~227M tons (+3%), aggregates cash GP/ton $11.33, mix-adjusted price +6% FY / +5% Q4; downstream cash GP ~$290M; FY26 guide (shipments +1-3%, prices +4-6%, cost +LSD, EBITDA $2.4-$2.6B, $750M reinvestment).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).