TC Energy 2025-26: Coastal GasLink Online, EBITDA C$9.5B
FY25 (CAD) revenue C$15.19B (+10%); Op income C$6.72B (+16%); NI C$3.52B (-25% on FY24 spin-out gain); EPS C$3.27 (-26%). EBITDA C$9.48B. Capex C$5.27B (-17% post-South Bow spin-out). Total debt C$60.95B (+$1.1B). Dividend C$3.62B (+8%, 25th consecutive annual increase).
Key takeaways
- First year as pure-play natural gas + power infrastructure post-South Bow spin-out. Liquids pipelines spun off as separate entity in October 2024. TRP now focused on natural gas pipelines + power generation + Mexican infrastructure.
- Coastal GasLink reached commercial operation. 670km BC pipeline supplying LNG Canada export terminal; first Canadian LNG export online late 2025. Major capex headwind ends.
- EBITDA C$9.48B (+13% YoY). EPS GAAP -26% reflects FY24 gain on South Bow spin distribution. Underlying earnings power growing.
- 25th consecutive year of dividend increase. Dividend C$3.62B FY25 (+8%). One of the longest streaks in Canadian dividends.
- FY26 setup is "completion year transition." Coastal GasLink no longer drag; contracted EBITDA visibility multi-decade; capex moderates to maintenance + selective growth.
Business
TC Energy (post-October 2024 South Bow spin-off) is a pure-play natural gas + power + Mexican energy infrastructure company. Three segments:
- Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines (~30% of revenue): NGTL system + Foothills + Mainline. Largest natural gas system in Canada; serves Canadian + US Midwest markets.
- US Natural Gas Pipelines (~30% of revenue): Columbia Gulf + Columbia Pipeline System + GTN + ANR. Serves Northeast + Midwest + Gulf Coast US.
- Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines (~10% of revenue): Sur de Texas-Tuxpan + Tula + others. Long-term contracts with CFE (Mexican utility).
- Power & Energy Solutions (~30% of revenue): Bruce Power (nuclear) JV + natural gas + storage + renewable + Coastal GasLink (now operational).
Coastal GasLink: 670km pipeline from Dawson Creek BC to LNG Canada terminal at Kitimat. Closed in October 2025; first commercial operations late FY25. Long-term contracted to LNG Canada (Shell + Petronas + PetroChina + Mitsubishi + Korea Gas + others). Multi-decade EBITDA contributor.
FY25 financial performance (CAD)
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (C$B) | 13.27 | 13.77 | 15.19 |
| Gross profit (C$B) | 6.67 | 6.61 | 7.60 |
| Op income (C$B) | 5.89 | 5.79 | 6.72 |
| Op margin | 44.4% | 42.0% | 44.2% |
| EBITDA (C$B) | 8.66 | 11.22 | 9.48 |
| Net income (C$B) | 2.92 | 4.70 | 3.52 |
| Diluted EPS (C$) | 2.75 | 4.43 | 3.27 |
| FCF (C$B) | -0.88 | 1.34 | 2.08 |
| Capex (C$B) | -8.15 | -6.36 | -5.27 |
| Total debt (C$B) | 63.66 | 59.88 | 60.95 |
| Dividends (C$B) | -2.88 | -4.05 | -3.62 |
The earnings print:
- Revenue +10% YoY on Coastal GasLink contributions + rate base growth.
- Op margin expanded back to 44.2% from FY24 dip.
- EBITDA C$9.48B vs C$11.22B FY24 — FY24 had South Bow spin-distribution gain.
- EPS C$3.27 vs C$4.43 FY24 — same gain effect.
- FCF +55% to C$2.08B — capex moderation kicking in.
Capital allocation
- Capex: -C$5.27B FY25 (-17% YoY) — moderating post-Coastal GasLink completion.
- Dividends: -C$3.62B FY25, 25th consecutive annual increase. ~C$3.40/share annual.
- Buybacks: -C$0.25B FY25 — small, opportunistic.
- M&A / Spin: South Bow spun off October 2024; cleanest year of pure-play TRP financials in FY25.
- Debt: C$60.95B (+C$1.1B YoY). Stable post-spin.
FY26 outlook
TRP did not provide detailed Q4 FY25 guide based on available data. Industry framework typically:
- Revenue: low-to-mid single-digit growth on contracted EBITDA
- EBITDA: continued growth on Coastal GasLink full-year + rate base
- Capex: maintenance + selective growth (~C$5B)
- Dividend: 26th consecutive annual increase expected
- Long-term: 5-7% EBITDA CAGR on contracted base
Key risks
- Mexico operations: Political/regulatory exposure to CFE relationship + Mexican government policy.
- Coastal GasLink ramp: Multi-decade contract but operational risks during ramp; LNG Canada Phase 2 expansion timing.
- Interest rates: Pipeline-utility-style asset valuation + debt cost both sensitive.
- Bruce Power: Nuclear JV exposure + refurbishment program execution.
- Climate / regulatory: Long-term carbon policy could affect natural gas demand trajectory.
- FX: Canadian + Mexican revenue mostly USD-priced contracts; reported in CAD.
Bottom line
TRP FY25 is the post-spin pure-play natural gas + power infrastructure year. Coastal GasLink completed, EBITDA C$9.48B, 25th consecutive dividend increase. Capex C$5.27B moderating. Risks are Mexico exposure + Bruce Power + long-term carbon policy. Quality + scale + multi-decade contracted base + reliable dividend make TRP one of the cleanest defensive infrastructure compounders.
Citations
- TC Energy Corp. FY25 Annual Report (filed February 2026, SEDAR + SEC 40-F).
- TRP Q4 2025 earnings call (typically February 2026) — Coastal GasLink commercial operation, post-South Bow spin financials, 25th consecutive dividend hike.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure; reflects post-spin operations).