Toast Inc. (NYSE: TOST) FY2025 revenue ~$5.5-5.8B (+25-30%) with adj. EPS ~$0.50-0.65 reflecting continued post-2024 ~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations live (~+25-30% YoY post-2024 ~120K locations) + selected continued post-2024 ~$170-180B aggregate annualized Gross Payment Volume (GPV) processing volume + selected continued post-2024 SaaS subscription + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion + selected post-2024 selected various international + selected various enterprise + selected various adjacent vertical expansion under continued Co-Founder + CEO Aman Narang since January 2024 (~1-year tenure as solo CEO). One of the largest US restaurant point-of-sale (POS) software + payments processing platforms. Founded 2011 as Toast in Boston Massachusetts by Aman Narang + Steve Fredette + Jonathan Grimm (~14-year heritage); selected post-2017 Chris Comparato CEO appointment; selected post-September 2021 NYSE IPO (~$870M raised); selected post-2022-2023 ~$850M aggregate post-IPO restructuring + cost optimization; selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection; selected post-January 2024 Aman Narang sole CEO appointment + Chris Comparato Executive Chairman transition. Headquartered in Boston Massachusetts; ~5,500+ employees globally with ~$5.5-5.8B revenue. Three primary revenue streams: FinTech (~85% ~$4.6-4.9B), SaaS Subscription (~10% ~$550-600M), Hardware + Professional Services (~5% ~$275-300M). Geographic + customer mix: US ~95%+ + selected various international ~5%. Restaurant location cycle: ~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations live FY2025 (~+25-30% YoY post-2024 ~120K aggregate locations); selected continued post-2024 ~$1B+ aggregate annualized location-based subscription + FinTech revenue contribution; selected ~25%+ aggregate US restaurant location penetration. Payments take-rate expansion: ~$170-180B aggregate annualized GPV processing volume FY2025; selected continued post-2024 ~0.55-0.60% aggregate Toast take-rate; selected continued SaaS subscription + Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion. Co-Founder + CEO Aman Narang since January 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Elena Gomez. Capital return: selected post-2023 ~$250M aggregate buyback program (~$200M+ aggregate FY2025 buybacks); aggregate capital return ~$200M+; net cash position ~$1.0-1.2B; investment-grade pathway B1/B+ credit rating; selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection. FY2026 thesis: Restaurant location cycle + Payments take-rate expansion + SaaS subscription + Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion + selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection + selected continued post-2024 capital return + selected potential post-2024 capital return acceleration. Risks: restaurant location growth sustainability, Square + Block + Lightspeed + Clover competition, payments take-rate sustainability, US enterprise execution, GAAP profitability sustainability.

[TOST] Toast Inc. Thesis 2026: Restaurant Location Cycle Drives Payments Take-Rate Expansion

Key Takeaways

Toast Inc. (NYSE: TOST) FY2025 revenue ~$5.5-5.8B (+25-30% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$0.50-0.65 reflecting continued post-2024 ~~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations live (~~+25-30% YoY post-2024 ~120K locations) plus selected continued post-2024 ~$170-180B aggregate annualized Gross Payment Volume (GPV) processing volume + selected continued post-2024 SaaS subscription + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion + selected post-2024 selected various international + selected various enterprise + selected various adjacent vertical expansion under continued Co-Founder + CEO Aman Narang since January 2024 (~1-year tenure as solo CEO post-Chris Comparato transition; ex-Toast Co-Founder + COO 2011-2024 + ex-various Endeca + selected various roles + ~15-year company career as Toast co-founding member; succeeded Chris Comparato 2017-January 2024 retired transitioning to Executive Chairman who led Toast through pre-IPO + post-September 2021 NYSE IPO + post-2023 financial profitability turn).
Restaurant location cycle: ~~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations live FY2025 (~~+25-30% YoY post-2024 120K aggregate locations); selected continued post-2024 selected various US small + medium business (SMB) restaurant + selected various US enterprise restaurant locations + selected continued post-2024 selected various Toast for Restaurants + selected various adjacent vertical expansion ($1B+ aggregate annualized location-based subscription + FinTech revenue contribution); selected continued post-2024 selected ~25%+ aggregate US restaurant location penetration.
Payments take-rate expansion: ~~$170-180B aggregate annualized GPV processing volume FY2025 (~~+25-30% YoY); selected continued post-2024 ~0.55-0.60% aggregate Toast take-rate (selected ~$15-18 average payment processing fee per ~$2.7K average location annualized GPV); selected continued post-2024 SaaS subscription + selected various Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion supporting selected continued ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution.
Capital return: selected post-2023 ~$250M aggregate buyback program (selected post-2024 ~$200M+ aggregate FY2025 buybacks); selected continued post-2024 net cash position ~$1.0-1.2B; investment-grade pathway B1/B+ credit rating (selected post-2024 investment-grade upgrade pathway); selected post-2024 GAAP profitability inflection; FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 capital return acceleration.

Company Background

Toast Inc. (NYSE: TOST) is one of the largest US restaurant point-of-sale (POS) software + payments processing platforms with FY2025 revenue ~$5.5-5.8B (+25-30% YoY) and adj. EPS ~$0.50-0.65 reflecting continued post-2024 ~~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations live (~~+25-30% YoY) plus selected continued post-2024 ~$170-180B aggregate annualized Gross Payment Volume (GPV) processing volume + selected continued post-2024 SaaS subscription + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion. The company employs ~5,500+ globally with operations across selected major US restaurant + selected various international markets.

Founded 2011 as Toast in Boston Massachusetts by Aman Narang + Steve Fredette + Jonathan Grimm (selected post-2011 mobile payments app pivot toward restaurant POS + payments platform); selected post-2017 Chris Comparato CEO appointment (selected ex-Acquia COO transition); selected post-2017-2021 selected various US restaurant POS + payments + selected various FinTech expansion; selected post-September 2021 NYSE IPO (~$870M raised + selected $20B+ aggregate market cap valuation); selected post-2022-2023 ~$850M aggregate post-IPO restructuring + cost optimization + selected continued path to profitability; selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection; selected post-January 2024 Aman Narang sole CEO appointment + Chris Comparato Executive Chairman transition; selected post-2024 selected various international + selected various enterprise expansion.

Headquartered in Boston Massachusetts; ~5,500+ employees globally with ~$5.5-5.8B revenue. Three primary revenue streams: FinTech (~85% revenue ~$4.6-4.9B — payments processing fees + Toast Capital working capital lending + selected various FinTech), SaaS Subscription (~10% ~$550-600M — restaurant POS software subscription fees averaging ~$165 monthly per location), Hardware + Professional Services (~5% ~$275-300M — Toast hardware + selected various). Geographic + customer mix: US ~95%+ revenue (primary US small + medium business restaurant + selected various US enterprise restaurant) + selected various international ~5%.

Co-Founder + CEO Aman Narang since January 2024 (~1-year tenure as solo CEO; selected post-Chris Comparato transition); succeeded Chris Comparato (CEO 2017-January 2024 retired transitioning to Executive Chairman who led Toast through pre-IPO + post-September 2021 NYSE IPO + post-2023 financial profitability turn); Narang ex-Toast Co-Founder + COO 2011-2024 + ex-various Endeca + selected various roles + ~15-year company career as Toast co-founding member; selected continued strategic priorities include restaurant location growth + payments take-rate expansion + selected continued post-2024 SaaS subscription + Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion + selected post-2024 various international + various enterprise + various adjacent vertical expansion. CFO Elena Gomez (since 2022; ex-Zendesk CFO + ex-Salesforce.com + ex-various roles + ~25-year industry career).

Restaurant Location Cycle

Toast restaurant location growth cycle:

FY2022: ~85K aggregate restaurant locations
FY2023: ~106K aggregate restaurant locations
FY2024: ~120K aggregate restaurant locations (+13% YoY)
FY2025: ~~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations (~~+25-30% YoY)
Selected continued US small + medium business (SMB) restaurant: continued primary growth driver
Selected various US enterprise restaurant: continued post-2024 selected various US enterprise expansion
Selected continued post-2024 Toast for Restaurants + adjacent vertical expansion: selected various Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech adjacent + selected various
Selected ~25%+ aggregate US restaurant location penetration: selected continued post-2024 selected major US restaurant locations on Toast

FY2026 catalyst: continued restaurant location growth toward ~165K+ + ~$0.05-0.10 incremental annual EPS contribution.

Payments Take-Rate Expansion

Toast payments processing + FinTech revenue framework:

Gross Payment Volume (GPV): ~~$170-180B aggregate annualized FY2025 (~~+25-30% YoY)
Toast take-rate: selected continued post-2024 ~0.55-0.60% aggregate Toast take-rate (selected ~$15-18 average payment processing fee per ~$2.7K average location annualized GPV)
SaaS subscription mix: ~~10% revenue (~~$550-600M; ~$165 monthly per location)
Toast Capital + Toast Payroll: selected continued post-2024 selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion
Selected continued post-2024 take-rate stability: selected continued ~0.55-0.60% aggregate Toast take-rate

FY2026 catalyst: continued GPV growth + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution.

Capital Return + GAAP Profitability Inflection

Toast capital return policy targets continued post-2024 buyback execution + selected various GAAP profitability:

Buybacks: selected post-2023 ~$250M aggregate buyback program (selected post-2024 ~$200M+ aggregate FY2025 buybacks)
Net cash position: ~$1.0-1.2B FY2025
GAAP profitability inflection: selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection
Selected continued post-2024 selected various FCF: continued post-2024 ~$300-500M aggregate FCF
Investment grade pathway: selected post-2024 B1/B+ credit rating (selected post-2024 investment-grade upgrade pathway)

FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 capital return acceleration.

Risks

Restaurant location growth: continued restaurant location growth sustainability
Selected various competitive intensity: Square + Block + Lightspeed + Clover + selected various restaurant POS + payments competitive
Selected payments take-rate: continued payments take-rate sustainability
Selected various US enterprise: continued various US enterprise expansion execution
Selected continued post-2024 selected GAAP profitability: selected continued post-2024 selected various GAAP profitability sustainability

Key Core Metrics

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2026 outlook
Revenue	$5.5-5.8B	$4.96B	$3.87B	$2.73B	$6.7-7.0B
Adj. EBITDA	$385-425M	$373M	$61M	-$254M	$475-525M
Adj. EPS (USD)	$0.50-0.65	$0.51	$0.10	-$1.05	$0.65-0.85
Locations (K)	140+	120	106	85	165+
GPV (annualized $B)	$170-180	$137	$103	$73	$210-225

Capital return	FY2025	FY2024	FY2026 outlook
Buybacks	$200M+	$250M	$200-300M
Total return	$200M+	$250M	$200-300M
Net cash	$1.0-1.2B	$1.0B	$1.1-1.4B
FCF	$300-500M	$306M	$400-600M

Market Evaluation

Toast trades at selected ~70-90x FY2026 P/E premium vs Block (~12-15x) + Lightspeed Commerce (~30-40x) + Shift4 Payments (~13-16x) + selected various restaurant POS + payments peers reflecting selected continued ~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations + selected continued ~$170-180B aggregate annualized GPV + selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection + selected continued post-2024 SaaS subscription + Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued restaurant location growth toward ~165K+; (2) GPV growth toward ~$210-225B aggregate annualized; (3) selected continued ~0.55-0.60% aggregate Toast take-rate; (4) continued SaaS subscription + Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech mix expansion; (5) ~$200-300M aggregate annual buybacks + selected potential post-2024 capital return acceleration.

Restaurant Location + Payments Strategic Differentiation Deep Dive

Toast restaurant location franchise + payments processing + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion represent selected primary strategic differentiation thesis vs traditional restaurant POS + payments peers (Block + Lightspeed Commerce + Shift4 Payments + Clover + selected various). Selected ~140K+ aggregate restaurant locations live FY2025 (selected +25-30% YoY post-2024 ~120K aggregate locations) + selected ~25%+ aggregate US restaurant location penetration supports selected primary US small + medium business (SMB) restaurant + selected various US enterprise restaurant location growth thesis. Selected continued post-2024 ~~$170-180B aggregate annualized Gross Payment Volume (GPV) processing volume (~~+25-30% YoY) + selected ~0.55-0.60% aggregate Toast take-rate (selected ~$15-18 average payment processing fee per ~$2.7K average location annualized GPV) supports selected continued payments processing economics. Selected continued post-2024 SaaS subscription + Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion (~10% SaaS subscription ~$550-600M; selected continued post-2024 various FinTech adjacent) supports selected continued post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution. Selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection (selected post-2022-2023 ~$850M aggregate post-IPO restructuring + cost optimization + selected continued path to profitability) supports selected continued post-2024 ~$300-500M aggregate FCF. Selected post-January 2024 Aman Narang sole CEO appointment (selected co-founder + ex-COO 2011-2024 + ~15-year company career) supports selected continued strategic priorities. FY2026 catalyst: continued location + GPV + ~$0.05-0.10 incremental annual EPS contribution.

FY2026 thesis: Restaurant location cycle + Payments take-rate expansion + SaaS subscription + Toast Capital + Toast Payroll + selected various FinTech revenue mix expansion + selected post-2023 GAAP profitability inflection + selected continued post-2024 capital return + selected potential post-2024 capital return acceleration.